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FC Porto vs Benfica - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal Estádio do Dragão, Porto
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Veiga G.
25'
Lenglet C.
31' Event
Veiga G.
Assist: Pepê

AI Match Summary

FC Porto in this Liga Portugal matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored FC Porto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
FC Porto
15%
Draws
42%
Benfica
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Porto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Benfica at 2.68 per game, FC Porto at 1.75.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on FC Porto taking it.
  • Regular Liga Portugal form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
FC Porto Clean Sheet 10%
Benfica Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Porto Benfica
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 22 22
Draws 4 6
Losses 6 3
Goals Scored 1.75 2.68
Goals Conceded 0.78 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Liga Portugal
FC Porto vs Benfica
3:1
Mar 8, 2026 Liga Portugal
Benfica vs FC Porto
2:2
Jan 14, 2026 Taça de Portugal
FC Porto vs Benfica
1:0
Oct 5, 2025 Liga Portugal
FC Porto vs Benfica
0:0
Apr 6, 2025 Liga Portugal
FC Porto vs Benfica
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Porto Compare

Top Goalscorer Veiga G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Froholdt V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Benfica Compare

Top Goalscorer Bah A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Porto 34 / 100
Benfica 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Porto Benfica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 5:5
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Porto's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Defensive concern: Benfica conceded in 74% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

FC Porto has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

FC Porto VS Benfica
2.38 Goals Scored 3.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
100% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Porto

(Home)
02 Oct
Dep. A Coruna
1 : 3
FC Porto
20 Sept
FC Porto
3 : 1
Benfica
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4
FC Porto
08 Sept
FC Porto
0 : 2
Manchester City
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1
Moreirense
Page 1 of 7

Benfica

(Away)
20 Sept
FC Porto
3 : 1
Benfica
16 Sept
AC Milan
0 : 2
Benfica
13 Sept
Benfica
3 : 1
Gil Vicente
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4
Benfica
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3
Benfica
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Porto 7 7 0 0 18:3 21
2 Benfica 7 5 1 1 22:7 16
3 Sporting CP 7 4 3 0 17:8 15
4 Santa Clara 7 4 3 0 11:4 15
5 Arouca 7 3 2 2 10:7 11
6 Braga 6 3 2 1 7:5 11
7 Academico Viseu 7 3 2 2 9:9 11
8 Estrela da Amadora 7 2 4 1 14:14 10
9 Gil Vicente 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
10 Alverca 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
11 Maritimo 7 2 2 3 8:12 8
12 Moreirense 7 2 2 3 8:14 8
13 Famalicao 7 1 4 2 9:7 7
14 Vitoria Guimaraes 7 1 2 4 5:8 5
15 Nacional 7 1 1 5 7:15 4
16 Rio Ave 7 1 1 5 5:15 4
17 Casa Pia 7 1 1 5 3:16 4
18 Estoril 7 0 2 5 3:10 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)