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FC Rio de Janeiro vs Barra Mansa

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2
Thu, Oct 1, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FC Rio de Janeiro host Barra Mansa in the Carioca B2. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Recent numbers: FC Rio de Janeiro at 1 goals for, 2.29 against; Barra Mansa at 0.96 for, 1.44 against. Head-to-head, FC Rio de Janeiro have won 1 to Barra Mansa's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Nov 9, 2025, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 0.92 vs 0.94, favoring Barra Mansa. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
FC Rio de Janeiro
35%
Draws
28%
Barra Mansa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: FC Rio de Janeiro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Barra Mansa lately — more wins on the board than FC Rio de Janeiro.
  • FC Rio de Janeiro are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Carioca B2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
FC Rio de Janeiro Clean Sheet 20%
Barra Mansa Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Rio de Janeiro Barra Mansa
Matches Played 24 27
Wins 4 7
Draws 3 8
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 1 0.96
Goals Conceded 2.29 1.44
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 9, 2025 Carioca B2
FC Rio de Janeiro vs Barra Mansa
3:0
Nov 7, 2024 Carioca B2
Barra Mansa vs FC Rio de Janeiro
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Rio de Janeiro 36 / 100
Barra Mansa 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Rio de Janeiro Barra Mansa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Defensive concern: Barra Mansa conceded in 63% of 27 recent games.

FC Rio de Janeiro scored in 50% of their last 24 games.

FC Rio de Janeiro went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Rio de Janeiro VS Barra Mansa
0.71 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
43% Over 1.5 63%
43% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Rio de Janeiro

(Home)
27 Sept
Serra Macaense
2 : 1
FC Rio de Janeiro
21 Sept
FC Rio de Janeiro
1 : 3
Santa Cruz RJ
13 Sept
Cardoso Moreira
1 : 0
FC Rio de Janeiro
06 Sept
Belford Roxo
0 : 0
FC Rio de Janeiro
31 Aug
FC Rio de Janeiro
3 : 1
Buzios
Page 1 of 5

Barra Mansa

(Away)
20 Sept
Paduano EC
2 : 2
Barra Mansa
14 Sept
Barra Mansa
1 : 4
7 de Abril
06 Sept
Friburguense
0 : 0
Barra Mansa
31 Aug
Barra Mansa
2 : 2
Campos AA
23 Jul
Barra Mansa
0 : 2
Buzios
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santa Cruz RJ 5 4 0 1 9:2 12
2 Cardoso Moreira 5 4 0 1 7:2 12
3 Friburguense 5 3 2 0 9:3 11
4 Paduano EC 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
5 7 de Abril 5 3 1 1 9:6 10
6 Serra Macaense 5 2 1 2 8:6 7
7 Belford Roxo 5 1 3 1 9:6 6
8 Campos AA 5 1 2 2 7:9 5
9 FC Rio de Janeiro 5 1 1 3 5:7 4
10 Barra Mansa 4 0 3 1 5:8 3
11 Buzios 4 0 0 4 1:12 0
12 Paraty 5 0 0 5 2:14 0
Promotion - Carioca B2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C 2027 (Main)