Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FC Rio de Janeiro vs Serra Macaense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Joao Tanque
80' Event
Joao Tanque

AI Match Summary

Serra Macaense in this Carioca B2 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Serra Macaense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
FC Rio de Janeiro
20%
Draws
29%
Serra Macaense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: FC Rio de Janeiro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Serra Macaense lately — more wins on the board than FC Rio de Janeiro.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Carioca B2 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
FC Rio de Janeiro Clean Sheet 12%
Serra Macaense Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Rio de Janeiro Serra Macaense
Matches Played 23 28
Wins 4 10
Draws 3 10
Losses 16 8
Goals Scored 1 1.18
Goals Conceded 2.3 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 2, 2025 Carioca B2
FC Rio de Janeiro vs Serra Macaense
0:2
Oct 21, 2024 Carioca B2
Serra Macaense vs FC Rio de Janeiro
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Rio de Janeiro Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Serra Macaense Compare

Top Goalscorer Joao Tanque
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Rio de Janeiro 30 / 100
Serra Macaense 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Rio de Janeiro Serra Macaense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serra Macaense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Recent resilience: FC Rio de Janeiro stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Serra Macaense's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

FC Rio de Janeiro VS Serra Macaense
1.13 Goals Scored 1
2.5 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Rio de Janeiro

(Home)
21 Sept
FC Rio de Janeiro
1 : 3
Santa Cruz RJ
13 Sept
Cardoso Moreira
1 : 0
FC Rio de Janeiro
06 Sept
Belford Roxo
0 : 0
FC Rio de Janeiro
31 Aug
FC Rio de Janeiro
3 : 1
Buzios
09 Nov
FC Rio de Janeiro
3 : 0
Barra Mansa
Page 1 of 5

Serra Macaense

(Away)
20 Sept
Buzios
0 : 3
Serra Macaense
13 Sept
Serra Macaense
1 : 2
Paduano EC
07 Sept
7 de Abril
2 : 2
Serra Macaense
30 Aug
Serra Macaense
0 : 1
Friburguense
09 Nov
Belford Roxo
2 : 0
Serra Macaense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santa Cruz RJ 8 7 1 0 14:3 22
2 Belford Roxo 8 5 1 2 17:8 16
3 Goytacaz 8 5 1 2 13:8 16
4 Macae 8 4 1 3 13:5 13
5 Serra Macaense 8 3 4 1 9:7 13
6 Paraty 8 2 2 4 9:10 8
7 7 de Abril 8 2 2 4 11:13 8
8 FC Rio de Janeiro 8 1 0 7 7:25 3
9 Barra Mansa 8 0 2 6 4:18 2
Promotion - Carioca B2 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C (Main)