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FC Rustavi vs Gagra - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Georgia Georgia

Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga David Petriashvili Stadium, Tbilisi
Our Tip

Match Events

37'
Skrypnyk I.
46'
Sub
Skrypnyk I. In: Martins V.
Out: Skrypnyk I.
56' Event
Vorobey O.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga game between FC Rustavi and Gagra finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FC Rustavi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
FC Rustavi
30%
Draws
29%
Gagra
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: FC Rustavi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and FC Rustavi come out ahead of Gagra on wins alone.
  • Model gives FC Rustavi a 41% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
FC Rustavi Clean Sheet 68%
Gagra Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Rustavi Gagra
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 10
Draws 7 11
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.28 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
FC Rustavi vs Gagra
3:0
May 16, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Gagra vs FC Rustavi
1:1
Mar 15, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
FC Rustavi vs Gagra
1:2
Nov 1, 2021 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2
Gagra vs FC Rustavi
2:0
Sep 10, 2021 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2
FC Rustavi vs Gagra
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Rustavi Compare

Top Goalscorer Kessi S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader David Oliveira
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Gagra Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Rustavi 50 / 100
Gagra 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Rustavi Gagra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Rustavi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gagra's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

FC Rustavi found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Recent resilience: FC Rustavi stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Rustavi VS Gagra
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Rustavi

(Home)
26 Sept
Samtredia
1 : 2
FC Rustavi
21 Sept
FC Rustavi
0 : 2
Iberia 1999
14 Sept
Meshakhte Tkibuli
0 : 1
FC Rustavi
09 Sept
Spaeri
1 : 1
FC Rustavi
04 Sept
FC Rustavi
0 : 1
Dinamo Batumi
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Gagra

(Away)
19 Sept
Gagra
1 : 1
Meshakhte Tkibuli
14 Sept
Dinamo Tbilisi
4 : 0
Gagra
10 Sept
Gagra
1 : 1
Torpedo Kutaisi
05 Sept
Dila Gori
1 : 0
Gagra
31 Aug
Gagra
2 : 0
Iberia 1999
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dinamo Tbilisi 27 13 9 5 45:30 48
2 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 46:36 47
3 FC Rustavi 27 13 7 7 32:23 46
4 Iberia 1999 27 14 4 9 38:30 46
5 Dila Gori 27 12 4 11 38:30 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 9 9 9 43:34 36
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 38:52 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 25:37 29
9 Spaeri 27 5 10 12 34:43 25
10 Meshakhte Tkibuli 27 2 11 14 20:44 17
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 2027 (Main)