Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FC Villa Clara vs Matanzas

Cuba Cuba

Liga Nacional
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FC Villa Clara play Matanzas in the Liga Nacional. It looks like a close match. Recently, FC Villa Clara averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.55 conceded. Matanzas averaged 0.94 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. In past meetings, FC Villa Clara won 2, Matanzas won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 24, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for FC Villa Clara and 0.63 for Matanzas. This points to a FC Villa Clara double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
FC Villa Clara
22%
Draws
33%
Matanzas
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: FC Villa Clara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • FC Villa Clara picked up more points recently compared to Matanzas.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 0.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 58%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
FC Villa Clara Clean Sheet 29%
Matanzas Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 52%
Second Half Goal 55%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Villa Clara Matanzas
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 12 9
Draws 8 6
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.23 0.94
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2025 Liga Nacional
FC Villa Clara vs Matanzas
1:0
May 17, 2025 Liga Nacional
Matanzas vs FC Villa Clara
1:0
Mar 29, 2025 Liga Nacional
FC Villa Clara vs Matanzas
0:0
Mar 22, 2025 Liga Nacional
Matanzas vs FC Villa Clara
0:1
Mar 11, 2023 Liga Nacional
FC Villa Clara vs Matanzas
0:4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Villa Clara 46 / 100
Matanzas 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Villa Clara Matanzas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: FC Villa Clara or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

FC Villa Clara attacking → ← attacking Matanzas

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Villa Clara scored in 68% of their last 31 games.

Matanzas let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

FC Villa Clara went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Matanzas lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 33
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC La Habana1173121:1224
2Artemisa1244418:1916
3Isla de La Juventud1132610:1611
4Pinar del Rio1023511:139
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Cienfuegos1264220:1122
2FC Villa Clara1264216:722
3Matanzas1233610:1312
4Mayabeque Guines1223711:269
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Las Tunas1271420:1322
2FC Ciego de Avila1262416:920
3FC Camaguey1152417:1417
4FC Sancti Spiritus111373:206
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Guantanamo1283125:627
2FC Santiago de Cuba1143412:1115
3FC Holguin1234512:1913
4CF Granma112279:228