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FCM Ungheni vs Victoria

Moldova Moldova

Super Liga 2025/2026
Wed, May 6, 2026
4 - 2
01:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Pavlov I.
(Penalty)
30' Event
Gurulea P.
98'
Arabadji A.

AI Match Summary

FCM Ungheni in this Super Liga 2025/2026 tie, finishing 4-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
FCM Ungheni
20%
Draws
33%
Victoria
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: FCM Ungheni

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • FCM Ungheni have won more games recently than Victoria.
  • Model gives FCM Ungheni a 47% chance of winning this.
  • FCM Ungheni have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor FCM Ungheni, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and FCM Ungheni have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
FCM Ungheni Clean Sheet 10%
Victoria Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FCM Ungheni Victoria
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 17 7
Draws 5 4
Losses 10 19
Goals Scored 2.75 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.97 2.77
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 Super Liga
FCM Ungheni vs Victoria
4:2
Apr 10, 2026 Liga 1
FCM Ungheni vs Victoria
6:2
Nov 7, 2025 Liga 1
Victoria vs FCM Ungheni
1:2
Sep 26, 2025 Liga 1
FCM Ungheni vs Victoria
3:1
Aug 15, 2025 Liga 1
Victoria vs FCM Ungheni
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FCM Ungheni Compare

Top Goalscorer Gurulea P.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Maneacov D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Victoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Pavlov I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FCM Ungheni 83 / 100
Victoria 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FCM Ungheni Victoria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FCM Ungheni Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FCM Ungheni found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (32 games).

Victoria's defensive record shows goals conceded in 97% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 5.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: FCM Ungheni stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FCM Ungheni VS Victoria
2.63 Goals Scored 1.63
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

FCM Ungheni

(Home)
18 Sept
Univer Comrat
1 : 1
FCM Ungheni
12 Sept
FCM Ungheni
5 : 2
Sparta Selemet
05 Sept
Vulturii Cutezatori
3 : 4
FCM Ungheni
02 Sept
FCM Ungheni
9 : 0
Olimp Comrat
28 Aug
FCM Ungheni
2 : 3
Iskra Ribnita
Page 1 of 7

Victoria

(Away)
18 Sept
Stauceni
4 : 1
Victoria
12 Sept
Victoria
2 : 1
Falesti
04 Sept
Oguzsport
1 : 1
Victoria
01 Sept
Victoria
5 : 3
Falesti
28 Aug
Victoria
0 : 2
National Ialoveni
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Real Sireti -
TBD -
Univer Comrat 2
Oguzsport 3
Iskra Ribnita -
TBD -
TBD -
Stauceni -
Sparta Selemet -
TBD -
TBD -
Falesti -
Floresti -
TBD -
FCM Ungheni 4
Victoria 2
Quarter-finals
Real Sireti 5
Oguzsport 2
Iskra Ribnita 3
Stauceni 1
Sparta Selemet 3
Falesti 0
Floresti 5
FCM Ungheni 4
Semi-finals
Real Sireti 1
Iskra Ribnita 0
Sparta Selemet 1
Floresti 4
Final
Real Sireti 1
Floresti 0