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Fenerbahce vs Nottingham

Europe Europe

Europa League 2025/2026 Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Istanbul
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Skriniar M.
21' Event
Murillo
Assist: Anderson E.
26'
Sub
Skriniar M. In: Soyuncu C.
Out: Skriniar M.

AI Match Summary

Nottingham in this Europa League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Fenerbahce
30%
Draws
23%
Nottingham
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fenerbahce

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Fenerbahce have won more games recently than Nottingham.
  • Win probability leans Fenerbahce's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Fenerbahce have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Nottingham, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Fenerbahce Clean Sheet 68%
Nottingham Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fenerbahce Nottingham
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 17 13
Draws 6 8
Losses 5 9
Goals Scored 2.11 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 26, 2026 Europa League
Nottingham vs Fenerbahce
1:2
Feb 19, 2026 Europa League
Fenerbahce vs Nottingham
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fenerbahce Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Nottingham Compare

Top Goalscorer Murillo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Igor Jesus
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fenerbahce 68 / 100
Nottingham 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fenerbahce Nottingham

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fenerbahce Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fenerbahce's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Nottingham's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Fenerbahce has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Fenerbahce VS Nottingham
1.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Fenerbahce

(Home)
10 Sept
Fenerbahce
1 : 1
AS Roma
05 Sept
Fenerbahce
1 : 2
Besiktas
30 Aug
Samsunspor
0 : 2
Fenerbahce
26 Aug
Lyon
1 : 2
Fenerbahce
22 Aug
Fenerbahce
4 : 2
Konyaspor
Page 1 of 6

Nottingham

(Away)
12 Sept
Aston Villa
1 : 2
Nottingham
05 Sept
Nottingham
0 : 0
Tottenham
29 Aug
Liverpool
2 : 2
Nottingham
25 Aug
Nottingham
0 : 2
Leeds
22 Aug
Nottingham
0 : 1
Leeds
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Ludogorets 2
Ferencvaros 3
Braga -
TBD -
Panathinaikos 4
Plzen 3
Betis -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb 4
Genk 6
Freiburg -
TBD -
PAOK 1
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon -
TBD -
Celtic 2
VfB Stuttgart 4
FC Porto -
TBD -
Fenerbahce 2
Nottingham 4
Midtjylland -
TBD -
Brann 0
Bologna 2
AS Roma -
TBD -
Lille 2
Crvena zvezda 1
Aston Villa -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros 2
Braga 4
Panathinaikos 1
Betis 4
Genk 2
Freiburg 5
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon 1
VfB Stuttgart 1
FC Porto 4
Nottingham 3
Midtjylland 2
Bologna 5
AS Roma 4
Lille 0
Aston Villa 3
Quarter-finals
Braga 5
Betis 3
Freiburg 6
Celta Vigo 1
FC Porto 1
Nottingham 2
Bologna 1
Aston Villa 7
Semi-finals
Braga 3
Freiburg 4
Nottingham 1
Aston Villa 4
Final
Freiburg 0
Aston Villa 3