Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Fenerbahce vs Samsunspor

Turkey Turkey

Super Cup Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Akturkoglu K.
Assist: Musaba A.
33'
Borevkovic T.
46'
Sub
Tomasson L. In: Gonul S.
Out: Tomasson L.

AI Match Summary

Fenerbahce in this Super Cup tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Fenerbahce
6%
Draws
4%
Samsunspor
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Fenerbahce

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Fenerbahce lately — more wins on the board than Samsunspor.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Fenerbahce taking it.
  • Fenerbahce have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Fenerbahce, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Fenerbahce Clean Sheet 68%
Samsunspor Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fenerbahce Samsunspor
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 19 14
Draws 6 5
Losses 5 9
Goals Scored 2.5 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Super Lig
Fenerbahce vs Samsunspor
3:2
Jan 6, 2026 Super Cup
Fenerbahce vs Samsunspor
2:0
Oct 5, 2025 Super Lig
Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce
0:0
Mar 16, 2025 Super Lig
Fenerbahce vs Samsunspor
0:0
Oct 20, 2024 Super Lig
Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fenerbahce Compare

Top Goalscorer Akturkoglu K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Duran J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Samsunspor Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fenerbahce 95 / 100
Samsunspor 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fenerbahce Samsunspor

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FEN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Fenerbahce scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Fenerbahce stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Samsunspor has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Fenerbahce VS Samsunspor
2.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Fenerbahce

(Home)
14 Jul
LASK Linz
1 : 2
Fenerbahce
11 Jul
Fenerbahce
4 : 0
Pogon Szczecin
08 Jul
Admira
0 : 5
Fenerbahce
17 May
Fenerbahce
3 : 3
Eyupspor
09 May
Konyaspor
0 : 3
Fenerbahce
Page 1 of 6

Samsunspor

(Away)
16 May
Samsunspor
3 : 0
Goztepe
09 May
Basaksehir
3 : 0
Samsunspor
02 May
Samsunspor
4 : 1
Galatasaray
27 Apr
Alanyaspor
2 : 3
Samsunspor
23 Apr
Samsunspor
0 : 1
Trabzonspor
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Galatasaray4
Trabzonspor1
Fenerbahce2
Samsunspor0
Final
Galatasaray0
Fenerbahce2