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Fenix Mariupol vs SC Poltava - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ukraine Ukraine

Persha Liga Kolos Stadium, Kovalivka
Fenix Mariupol Logo

Fenix Mariupol

0 - 3
FT
SC Poltava Logo

SC Poltava

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Sad V.
30' Event
Sad V.
46'
Sub
Chornomorets O. In: Kusyi A.
Out: Chornomorets O.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

SC Poltava in this Persha Liga matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored SC Poltava.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Fenix Mariupol
30%
Draws
33%
SC Poltava
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fenix Mariupol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Fenix Mariupol lately — more wins on the board than SC Poltava.
  • Win probability leans Fenix Mariupol's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Fenix Mariupol Clean Sheet 20%
SC Poltava Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fenix Mariupol SC Poltava
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 6
Draws 10 7
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 1.5 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Persha Liga
Fenix Mariupol vs SC Poltava
0:3
Nov 17, 2024 Persha Liga
Fenix Mariupol vs SC Poltava
1:2
Sep 22, 2024 Persha Liga
SC Poltava vs Fenix Mariupol
3:0
Feb 2, 2024 Club Friendly
Fenix Mariupol vs SC Poltava
0:0
Oct 16, 2023 Persha Liga
SC Poltava vs Fenix Mariupol
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fenix Mariupol Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

SC Poltava Compare

Top Goalscorer Sad V.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Blagodarnyi D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fenix Mariupol 36 / 100
SC Poltava 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fenix Mariupol SC Poltava

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fenix Mariupol found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

SC Poltava's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Fenix Mariupol remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Fenix Mariupol VS SC Poltava
2.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fenix Mariupol

(Home)
05 Oct
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 0
Nyva Ternopil
27 Sept
Oleksandriya
1 : 1
Fenix Mariupol
20 Sept
Fenix Mariupol
2 : 1
Zhytomyr 2
13 Sept
Probiy Horodenka
0 : 2
Fenix Mariupol
09 Sept
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 2
Zorya
Page 1 of 6

SC Poltava

(Away)
02 Oct
SC Poltava
3 : 2
FC Chernihiv
26 Sept
Kulikiv
2 : 1
SC Poltava
20 Sept
SC Poltava
3 : 0
Metalist Kharkiv
12 Sept
Lokomotyv Kyiv
2 : 1
SC Poltava
04 Sept
SC Poltava
0 : 0
Inhulets
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Victoria 10 6 2 2 12:6 20
2 Oleksandriya 10 5 4 1 15:7 19
3 SC Poltava 10 5 3 2 16:7 18
4 Kulikiv 10 5 2 3 20:11 17
5 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 10 5 2 3 17:14 17
6 Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998) 10 4 3 3 12:9 15
7 Fenix Mariupol 10 4 3 3 12:11 15
8 Inhulets 9 4 2 3 10:11 14
9 Metalist Kharkiv 10 4 2 4 11:11 14
10 Lokomotyv Kyiv 10 3 4 3 12:12 13
11 Kolos Kovalivka 2 10 4 0 6 11:17 12
12 Nyva Ternopil 10 2 5 3 9:9 11
13 UCSA 10 2 4 4 14:17 10
14 FC Chernihiv 9 1 4 4 10:14 7
15 Zhytomyr 2 10 1 4 5 14:20 7
16 Probiy Horodenka 10 1 2 7 8:27 5
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Persha Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Persha Liga (Relegation Group)
Relegation - Druha Liga 2027/2028 (Main)