Sport Picks
Fenix Mariupol vs Zorya - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Ukraine
Ukrainian Cup Kolos Stadium, Kovalivka 
Match Events
16'
16'
Italo Henrique
24'
24'
Grytsak N.
35'
35'
Sub
Slesar A. In: Jelavic D.
Out: Slesar A.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 0-2. This leg finished 0-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
35%
32%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
33%
/ Low Confidence
- Attack-wise there's a gap: Zorya at 1.6 per game, Fenix Mariupol at 1.45.
- Fenix Mariupol are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor Zorya, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Fenix Mariupol Clean Sheet 68%
Zorya Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Fenix Mariupol | Zorya |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 11 |
| Draws | 10 | 8 |
| Losses | 8 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.45 | 1.6 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.03 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 9, 2026 Ukrainian Cup
Fenix Mariupol vs Zorya
0:2
Oct 12, 2023 Ukrainian Cup
Fenix Mariupol vs Zorya
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Fenix Mariupol Compare
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Zorya Compare
Top Goalscorer Gorbach I.
1 Goals Assists Leader Budkivskyi P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Fenix Mariupol 50 / 100
Zorya 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Fenix Mariupol Zorya
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Fenix Mariupol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Zorya has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.
Fenix Mariupol found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).
These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.
Fenix Mariupol has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Fenix Mariupol VS Zorya
2.25 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Fenix Mariupol
(Home) 05 Oct
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 0 Nyva Ternopil
27 Sept
Oleksandriya
1 : 1 Fenix Mariupol
20 Sept
Fenix Mariupol
2 : 1 Zhytomyr 2
13 Sept
Probiy Horodenka
0 : 2 Fenix Mariupol
09 Sept
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 2 Zorya
Page 1 of 6
05 Oct
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 0 Nyva Ternopil
20 Sept
Fenix Mariupol
2 : 1 Zhytomyr 2
09 Sept
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 2 Zorya
05 Sept
Fenix Mariupol
1 : 1 Kulikiv
16 Aug
Fenix Mariupol
3 : 1 Kolos Kovalivka 2
Page 1 of 3
Zorya
(Away) 04 Oct
Kolos Kovalivka
1 : 2 Zorya
19 Sept
Zorya
0 : 2 Dynamo Kyiv
13 Sept
Bukovyna
1 : 1 Zorya
09 Sept
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 2 Zorya
06 Sept
Veres Rivne
1 : 1 Zorya
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Kolos Kovalivka
1 : 2 Zorya
13 Sept
Bukovyna
1 : 1 Zorya
09 Sept
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 2 Zorya
06 Sept
Veres Rivne
1 : 1 Zorya
22 Aug
Skala 1911
0 : 6 Zorya
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Ch. Odesa 0
FC Vilkhivtsi 1
TBD -
Shakhtar -
Nyva Vinnytsya 3
Rukh Lviv 2
Dynamo Kyiv -
TBD -
Bukovyna 4
Nyva Ternopil 0
TBD -
LNZ Cherkasy -
FC Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1
Victoria 3
Penuel Kryvyi Rih 0
Metalist Kharkiv 1
Kolos Polonne 1
Trostyanets 2
LSTM Lutsk 1
FC Chernihiv 2
Karbon Cherkasy 1
Pokuttia Kolomyia 0
Epitsentr 2
To4ka Odessa 1
TBD -
Polissya Zhytomyr -
Lozova 1
Kudrivka 6
Novyi Rozdil 2
Atlet Kiev 1
Ahrotekh Tyshkivka 2
Vilkhivtsi Ivano Frankivsk 1
Mayak Sarny 1
SC Poltava 0
Druzhba-Kozaky 3
Bazys Kochubiyivka 5
Reshetylivka 1
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998) 4
FC Kharkiv 9
Kalynivka 0
Dinaz Vyshgorod 0
Fenix Mariupol 6
Skala 1911 0
Zorya 6
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya 1
Olympia Savyntsi 2
Kryvbas 3
Rokyta 0
Kolos Kovalivka 3
UCSA 0
Karpaty Lviv 2
Obolon 0
Lokomotyv Kyiv 1
Probiy Horodenka 3
Bratslav Vinnytsia 0
Oleksandriya 2
Rebel Kyiv 0
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 4
Dnister Zalishchyky 0
Livyi Bereg 3
Kulikiv 2
Palmira Odesa 1
Veres Rivne 4
Inhulets 1
1/16-finals
FC Vilkhivtsi 0
Shakhtar 3
Nyva Vinnytsya 0
Dynamo Kyiv 1
Bukovyna 0
LNZ Cherkasy 1
Victoria 0
Metalist Kharkiv 1
Trostyanets 2
FC Chernihiv 4
Karbon Cherkasy 0
Epitsentr 3
Polissya Zhytomyr 2
Kudrivka 0
Novyi Rozdil 3
Ahrotekh Tyshkivka 1
Mayak Sarny 4
Bazys Kochubiyivka 1
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998) 0
FC Kharkiv 2
Fenix Mariupol 0
Zorya 2
Olympia Savyntsi 0
Kryvbas 2
Kolos Kovalivka 2
Karpaty Lviv 3
Probiy Horodenka 1
Oleksandriya 2
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1
Livyi Bereg 2
Kulikiv 0
Veres Rivne 1
1/8-finals
Shakhtar -
Dynamo Kyiv -
LNZ Cherkasy -
Metalist Kharkiv -
FC Chernihiv -
Epitsentr -
Polissya Zhytomyr -
Novyi Rozdil -
Mayak Sarny -
FC Kharkiv -
Zorya -
Kryvbas -
Karpaty Lviv -
Oleksandriya -
Livyi Bereg -
Veres Rivne -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
