Sport Picks
Fermana vs Aquila Calcio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Italy
Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 Stadio Bruno Recchioni, Fermo 
Match Events
18'
18'
Banegas P. E.
37'
37'
Sereni M.
62'
62'
De Silvestro E.
AI Match Summary
Aquila Calcio in this Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aquila Calcio.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
19%
30%
51%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aquila Calcio
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Aquila Calcio have won more games recently than Fermana.
- Model gives Aquila Calcio a 51% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Fermana Clean Sheet 20%
Aquila Calcio Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Fermana | Aquila Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 37 |
| Wins | 4 | 17 |
| Draws | 11 | 11 |
| Losses | 15 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 0.67 | 1.62 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.23 | 1.05 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.42 | 1.05 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 2, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Fermana vs Aquila Calcio
1:2
Oct 6, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Aquila Calcio vs Fermana
2:0
Mar 13, 2004 Lega Pro C1/B
Aquila Calcio vs Fermana
3:0
Oct 18, 2003 Lega Pro C1/B
Fermana vs Aquila Calcio
2:0
Apr 19, 2003 Lega Pro C1/B
Fermana vs Aquila Calcio
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Fermana Compare
Top Goalscorer De Silvestro E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71
Aquila Calcio Compare
Top Goalscorer Banegas P. E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sereni M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Fermana 10 / 100
Aquila Calcio 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Fermana Aquila Calcio
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aquila Calcio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.
Attacking prowess: Fermana scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.
Aquila Calcio has conceded goals in 57% of their last 37 outings.
Recent resilience: Fermana stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
- VS Aquila Calcio
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Fermana
(Home) 04 May
Castelfidardo
1 : 0 Fermana
27 Apr
Fermana
0 : 2 Sambenedettese
17 Apr
Fermana
0 : 2 Civitanovese Calcio
13 Apr
Termoli
1 : 1 Fermana
06 Apr
Fermana
2 : 0 Avezzano
Page 1 of 6
27 Apr
Fermana
0 : 2 Sambenedettese
17 Apr
Fermana
0 : 2 Civitanovese Calcio
06 Apr
Fermana
2 : 0 Avezzano
23 Mar
Fermana
0 : 1 Fossombrone
02 Mar
Fermana
1 : 1 Roma City
Page 1 of 3
Aquila Calcio
(Away) 07 Oct
Aquila Calcio
5 : 2 Termoli
04 Oct
Pietralunga
0 : 3 Aquila Calcio
27 Sept
Aquila Calcio
2 : 0 Teramo
20 Sept
Ancona
2 : 2 Aquila Calcio
16 Sept
Aquila Calcio
0 : 0 Atletico Ascoli
Page 1 of 8
04 Oct
Pietralunga
0 : 3 Aquila Calcio
20 Sept
Ancona
2 : 2 Aquila Calcio
12 Sept
Fossombrone
0 : 4 Aquila Calcio
01 Aug
Pineto
0 : 1 Aquila Calcio
03 May
Termoli
1 : 1 Aquila Calcio
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sambenedettese | 34 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 61:21 | 72 |
| 2 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 48:31 | 62 |
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 51:33 | 60 |
| 4 | Calcio Chieti | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 52:39 | 58 |
| 5 | Fossombrone | 34 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 44:36 | 50 |
| 6 | Ancona | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 35:40 | 47 |
| 7 | Avezzano | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 41:43 | 46 |
| 8 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 39:34 | 45 |
| 9 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 35:39 | 43 |
| 10 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 36:38 | 42 |
| 11 | Termoli | 34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 37:44 | 41 |
| 12 | Recanatese | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42:53 | 40 |
| 13 | AS Sora | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 32:39 | 40 |
| 14 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 37:45 | 38 |
| 15 | Civitanovese Calcio | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 31:39 | 37 |
| 16 | Roma City | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 32:36 | 35 |
| 17 | Isernia | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 32:57 | 34 |
| 18 | Fermana | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 24:42 | 27 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 (Play Out)
