Sport Picks
Fermana vs Notaresco Calcio
Italy
Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 Stadio Bruno Recchioni, Fermo 
Match Events
9'
9'
Sall I.
45'
45'
Romizi M.
66'
66'
Infantino S.
AI Match Summary
Notaresco Calcio in this Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Notaresco Calcio.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Notaresco Calcio lately — more wins on the board than Fermana.
- Win probability leans Fermana's way, sitting at 42%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Fermana Clean Sheet 20%
Notaresco Calcio Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Fermana | Notaresco Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 39 |
| Wins | 4 | 13 |
| Draws | 11 | 11 |
| Losses | 15 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 0.67 | 1.18 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.23 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.04 | 0.86 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 16, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Fermana vs Notaresco Calcio
1:4
Oct 20, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Notaresco Calcio vs Fermana
2:1
Jan 25, 2017 Serie D - Group F
Fermana vs Notaresco Calcio
3:0
Sep 4, 2016 Serie D - Group F
Notaresco Calcio vs Fermana
0:0
Jan 24, 2016 Serie D - Group F
Fermana vs Notaresco Calcio
1:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Fermana Compare
Top Goalscorer Romizi M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52
Notaresco Calcio Compare
Top Goalscorer Kapnidis A.
2 Goals Assists Leader Sall I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Fermana 42 / 100
Notaresco Calcio 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Fermana Notaresco Calcio
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Notaresco Calcio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 39 matches.
Notaresco Calcio lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Fermana scored in 53% of their last 30 games.
Scoring Trends
- VS Notaresco Calcio
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Fermana
(Home) 04 May
Castelfidardo
1 : 0 Fermana
27 Apr
Fermana
0 : 2 Sambenedettese
17 Apr
Fermana
0 : 2 Civitanovese Calcio
13 Apr
Termoli
1 : 1 Fermana
06 Apr
Fermana
2 : 0 Avezzano
Page 1 of 6
27 Apr
Fermana
0 : 2 Sambenedettese
17 Apr
Fermana
0 : 2 Civitanovese Calcio
06 Apr
Fermana
2 : 0 Avezzano
23 Mar
Fermana
0 : 1 Fossombrone
02 Mar
Fermana
1 : 1 Roma City
Page 1 of 3
Notaresco Calcio
(Away) 05 Aug
Pineto
4 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
17 May
Teramo
3 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
10 May
Ancona
1 : 3 Notaresco Calcio
03 May
Ancona
1 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
26 Apr
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 2 San Marino Calcio
Page 1 of 8
05 Aug
Pineto
4 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
17 May
Teramo
3 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
10 May
Ancona
1 : 3 Notaresco Calcio
03 May
Ancona
1 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
19 Apr
Termoli
1 : 2 Notaresco Calcio
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sambenedettese | 34 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 61:21 | 72 |
| 2 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 48:31 | 62 |
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 51:33 | 60 |
| 4 | Calcio Chieti | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 52:39 | 58 |
| 5 | Fossombrone | 34 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 44:36 | 50 |
| 6 | Ancona | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 35:40 | 47 |
| 7 | Avezzano | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 41:43 | 46 |
| 8 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 39:34 | 45 |
| 9 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 35:39 | 43 |
| 10 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 36:38 | 42 |
| 11 | Termoli | 34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 37:44 | 41 |
| 12 | Recanatese | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42:53 | 40 |
| 13 | AS Sora | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 32:39 | 40 |
| 14 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 37:45 | 38 |
| 15 | Civitanovese Calcio | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 31:39 | 37 |
| 16 | Roma City | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 32:36 | 35 |
| 17 | Isernia | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 32:57 | 34 |
| 18 | Fermana | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 24:42 | 27 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2024/2025 (Play Out)
