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Ferreira de Aves vs Castro Daire

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2021/2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2021/2022 game between Ferreira de Aves and Castro Daire finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castro Daire.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Ferreira de Aves
20%
Draws
23%
Castro Daire
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ferreira de Aves

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Castro Daire carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Ferreira de Aves's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Castro Daire have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 19%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22.8%
Ferreira de Aves Clean Sheet 68%
Castro Daire Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ferreira de Aves Castro Daire
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 7 8
Draws 5 7
Losses 18 18
Goals Scored 0.53 0.94
Goals Conceded 1.97 1.15
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 0.80
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Ferreira de Aves vs Castro Daire
1:0
Apr 3, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Castro Daire vs Ferreira de Aves
3:0
Feb 20, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Castro Daire vs Ferreira de Aves
2:0
Dec 5, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Ferreira de Aves vs Castro Daire
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferreira de Aves 59 / 100
Castro Daire 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ferreira de Aves Castro Daire

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ferreira de Aves Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castro Daire let in goals in 70% of their last 33 matches.

H2H data points to 2.25 goals as a typical output.

Ferreira de Aves went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Castro Daire registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Castro Daire
0 Goals Scored 0.5
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ferreira de Aves

(Home)
08 May
CD Gouveia
1 : 2
Ferreira de Aves
01 May
Ferreira de Aves
1 : 0
Castro Daire
24 Apr
Ferreira de Aves
1 : 1
Uniao de Coimbra
10 Apr
Ferreira de Aves
1 : 0
CD Gouveia
03 Apr
Castro Daire
3 : 0
Ferreira de Aves
Page 1 of 6

Castro Daire

(Away)
19 Sept
Castro Daire
0 : 1
Portimonense
13 Sept
Beira Mar
1 : 1
Castro Daire
22 Aug
Sousense
0 : 1
Castro Daire
16 Aug
Castro Daire
0 : 2
UD Ovarense
31 Aug
Castro Daire
1 : 2
Anadia
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SC Salgueiros 18 13 4 1 29:14 43
2 Leca 18 12 3 3 36:15 39
3 Gondomar 18 10 3 5 34:19 33
4 Castro Daire 18 9 5 4 25:15 32
5 SC Espinho 18 8 5 5 24:13 29
6 Santa Cruz Alvarenga 18 5 5 8 13:16 20
7 Valadares Gaia FC 18 5 5 8 22:20 20
8 Uniao de Coimbra 18 4 4 10 17:29 16
9 Ferreira de Aves 18 3 3 12 6:35 12
10 CD Gouveia 18 1 3 14 8:38 6
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2021/2022 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2021/2022 (Relegation Group)