Sport Picks
Ferro Carril vs CA Cerro
Uruguay
Copa Uruguay 2023 
Match Events
1'
1'
(Penalty)
1'
1'
Penalty Missed
2'
2'
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
CA Cerro in this Copa Uruguay 2023 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ferro Carril
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
42%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to CA Cerro lately — more wins on the board than Ferro Carril.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on CA Cerro taking it.
- CA Cerro arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor CA Cerro, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Ferro Carril Clean Sheet 24%
CA Cerro Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ferro Carril | CA Cerro |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 6 | 29 |
| Wins | 4 | 9 |
| Draws | 0 | 6 |
| Losses | 2 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.17 | 0.72 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.67 | 1.28 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.35 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 7, 2023 Copa Uruguay
Ferro Carril vs CA Cerro
0:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ferro Carril 29 / 100
CA Cerro 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ferro Carril CA Cerro
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick CER Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ferro Carril found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (6 games).
CA Cerro let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.
Recent resilience: Ferro Carril stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
- VS CA Cerro
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Ferro Carril
(Home) 31 Oct
Defensor Sp.
6 : 0 Ferro Carril
22 Oct
Ferro Carril
2 : 1 Melo Wanderers
09 Oct
Ferro Carril
2 : 1 Club Oriental De Futbol
07 Nov
Ferro Carril
0 : 1 CA Cerro
11 Oct
Ferro Carril
1 : 0 Bella Vista
Page 1 of 2
22 Oct
Ferro Carril
2 : 1 Melo Wanderers
09 Oct
Ferro Carril
2 : 1 Club Oriental De Futbol
07 Nov
Ferro Carril
0 : 1 CA Cerro
11 Oct
Ferro Carril
1 : 0 Bella Vista
CA Cerro
(Away) 09 Aug
Danubio
0 : 1 CA Cerro
03 Aug
Defensor Sp.
2 : 1 CA Cerro
26 Jul
CA Cerro
1 : 0 Racing Montevideo
12 Jul
Liverpool M.
1 : 2 CA Cerro
07 Jun
CA Cerro
0 : 1 Penarol
Page 1 of 6
09 Aug
Danubio
0 : 1 CA Cerro
03 Aug
Defensor Sp.
2 : 1 CA Cerro
12 Jul
Liverpool M.
1 : 2 CA Cerro
29 May
Cerro Largo
2 : 0 CA Cerro
16 May
Boston River
4 : 1 CA Cerro
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Huracan Buceo 1
Ferro Carril 2
TBD -
Bella Vista -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
CA Cerro -
Tacuarembo -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Fenix -
Wanderers Durazno 0
Terremoto 2
TBD -
Miramar -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Wanderers -
Juventud Colonia 2
Salto FC 1
TBD -
Albion -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
River Plate Montevideo -
Cooper 0
Libertad San Carlos 1
TBD -
Uruguay Montevideo FC -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Plaza Colonia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Defensor Sp. -
Campana 1
Club Atletico Basanez 2
TBD -
Cerrito -
Quilmes 2
Central Esp. 1
TBD -
Rampla Juniors -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
La Luz -
Lavalleja (Minas) -
Rocha -
TBD -
Juventud -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Danubio -
Huracan (Treinta y Tres) 0
Lito 1
TBD -
Sud America -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Penarol -
Universitario Salto -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Boston River -
Salus 0
Atletico Juanico 4
TBD -
Atenas -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Liverpool M. -
Colon 2
Paysandu Bella Vista 1
TBD -
Potencia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Club Nacional -
Nacional Nueva Helvecia 2
Villa Espanola 1
TBD -
Progreso -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Montevideo City -
Central San Jose -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Maldonado -
Deutscher 0
Sportivo Barracas 1
TBD -
Rentistas -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cerro Largo -
Club Oriental De Futbol -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Racing Montevideo -
1/32-finals
Ferro Carril 1
Bella Vista 0
TBD -
CA Cerro -
Tacuarembo -
TBD -
TBD -
Fenix -
Terremoto 1
Miramar 2
TBD -
Wanderers -
Juventud Colonia 0
Albion 5
TBD -
River Plate Montevideo -
Libertad San Carlos 0
Uruguay Montevideo FC 2
TBD -
Plaza Colonia -
TBD -
Defensor Sp. -
Club Atletico Basanez 0
Cerrito 1
Quilmes 1
Rampla Juniors 2
TBD -
La Luz -
Lavalleja (Minas) 2
Juventud 1
TBD -
Danubio -
Lito 0
Sud America 2
TBD -
Penarol -
Universitario Salto -
TBD -
TBD -
Boston River -
Atletico Juanico 1
Atenas 2
TBD -
Liverpool M. -
Colon 2
Potencia 3
TBD -
Club Nacional -
Nacional Nueva Helvecia 1
Progreso 2
TBD -
Montevideo City -
Central San Jose -
TBD -
TBD -
Maldonado -
Sportivo Barracas 2
Rentistas 1
TBD -
Cerro Largo -
Club Oriental De Futbol -
TBD -
TBD -
Racing Montevideo -
1/16-finals
Ferro Carril 0
CA Cerro 1
Tacuarembo 1
Fenix 2
Miramar 0
Wanderers 1
Albion 0
River Plate Montevideo 2
Uruguay Montevideo FC 1
Plaza Colonia 2
Defensor Sp. 3
Cerrito 0
Rampla Juniors 2
La Luz 3
Lavalleja (Minas) 1
Danubio 3
Sud America 0
Penarol 3
Universitario Salto 1
Boston River 3
Atenas 2
Liverpool M. 3
Potencia 0
Club Nacional 4
Progreso 1
Montevideo City 2
Central San Jose 0
Maldonado 1
Sportivo Barracas 3
Cerro Largo 2
Club Oriental De Futbol 1
Racing Montevideo 0
1/8-finals
CA Cerro 2
Fenix 1
Wanderers 0
River Plate Montevideo 4
Plaza Colonia 0
Defensor Sp. 1
La Luz 0
Danubio 1
Penarol 2
Boston River 0
Liverpool M. 2
Club Nacional 1
Montevideo City 2
Maldonado 0
Sportivo Barracas 2
Club Oriental De Futbol 1
Quarter-finals
CA Cerro 1
River Plate Montevideo 2
Defensor Sp. 1
Danubio 0
Penarol 3
Liverpool M. 1
Montevideo City 8
Sportivo Barracas 1
Semi-finals
River Plate Montevideo 1
Defensor Sp. 2
Penarol 1
Montevideo City 3
Final
Defensor Sp. 3
Montevideo City 2
