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Ferroviaria vs Sertaozinho

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A2
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Jeffinho
69' Event
Vitor Barreto
73' Event
Thiago M.

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A2 game between Ferroviaria and Sertaozinho finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ferroviaria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

63%
Ferroviaria
20%
Draws
17%
Sertaozinho
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ferroviaria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

63% / High Confidence
  • Sertaozinho haven't matched Ferroviaria's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Ferroviaria's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Paulista A2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Ferroviaria here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Ferroviaria Clean Sheet 68%
Sertaozinho Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ferroviaria Sertaozinho
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 16 11
Draws 11 9
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.31 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.91 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2026 Paulista A2
Sertaozinho vs Ferroviaria
0:1
Mar 19, 2026 Paulista A2
Ferroviaria vs Sertaozinho
1:2
Feb 14, 2026 Paulista A2
Ferroviaria vs Sertaozinho
3:2
Mar 27, 2011 Paulista A2
Sertaozinho vs Ferroviaria
0:5
Feb 12, 2011 Paulista A2
Ferroviaria vs Sertaozinho
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ferroviaria Compare

Top Goalscorer Vitor Barreto
1 Goals
Assists Leader Thiago M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Sertaozinho Compare

Top Goalscorer Jeffinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Moreira K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferroviaria 95 / 100
Sertaozinho 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ferroviaria Sertaozinho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ferroviaria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Ferroviaria went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Ferroviaria's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 35 recent games.

Sertaozinho has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ferroviaria VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ferroviaria

(Home)
27 Sept
Brusque
1 : 1
Ferroviaria
20 Sept
Ferroviaria
3 : 2
Brusque
13 Sept
Ferroviaria
1 : 0
Paysandu PA
05 Sept
Internacional de Limeira
3 : 3
Ferroviaria
29 Aug
Ferroviaria
1 : 0
Confianca
Page 1 of 7

Sertaozinho

(Away)
15 Apr
Sao Jose EC
5 : 0
Sertaozinho
08 Apr
Sertaozinho
0 : 1
Ferroviaria
28 Mar
Sertaozinho
0 : 2
Juventus-SP
22 Mar
Juventus-SP
2 : 1
Sertaozinho
19 Mar
Ferroviaria
1 : 2
Sertaozinho
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Agua Santa 15 10 1 4 24:14 31
2 Ferroviaria 15 8 4 3 22:12 28
3 Ituano 15 8 4 3 22:14 28
4 Sao Jose EC 15 8 3 4 21:13 27
5 Sertaozinho 15 7 4 4 19:19 25
6 Votuporanguense 15 7 3 5 16:17 24
7 Juventus-SP 15 6 5 4 22:20 23
8 Piracicaba 15 6 4 5 16:15 22
9 Osasco Sporting 15 5 7 3 22:18 22
10 Santo Andre 15 5 3 7 16:22 18
11 Taubate 15 3 8 4 22:23 17
12 Internacional de Limeira 15 4 4 7 15:18 16
13 Linense 15 2 7 6 12:18 13
14 Monte Azul 15 2 6 7 17:22 12
15 Gremio Prudente 15 1 9 5 12:16 12
16 Sao Bento 15 1 2 12 8:25 5
Promotion - Paulista A2 (Second stage)
Relegation - Paulista A3 (Main)