Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ferroviario Nacala vs Baia de Pemba

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ferroviario Nacala play Baia de Pemba in the Mocambola. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ferroviario Nacala averaged 0.71 goals scored and 0.64 conceded. Baia de Pemba averaged 0.92 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. In past meetings, Ferroviario Nacala won 2, Baia de Pemba won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 14, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.81 for Ferroviario Nacala and 0.32 for Baia de Pemba. This points to a Ferroviario Nacala double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Ferroviario Nacala
22%
Draws
35%
Baia de Pemba
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Ferroviario Nacala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Ferroviario Nacala picked up more points recently compared to Baia de Pemba.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.81 vs 0.32 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 41%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 11%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 17%
Ferroviario Nacala Clean Sheet 33%
Baia de Pemba Clean Sheet 18%
First Half Goal 37%
Second Half Goal 39%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ferroviario Nacala Baia de Pemba
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 11 8
Draws 9 8
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 0.71 0.92
Goals Conceded 0.64 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2026 Mocambola
Ferroviario Nacala vs Baia de Pemba
1:0
Sep 23, 2025 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Ferroviario Nacala
3:0
Jul 5, 2025 Mocambola
Ferroviario Nacala vs Baia de Pemba
1:0
Aug 19, 2023 Mocambola
Baia de Pemba vs Ferroviario Nacala
1:0
May 6, 2023 Mocambola
Ferroviario Nacala vs Baia de Pemba
0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferroviario Nacala 45 / 100
Baia de Pemba 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ferroviario Nacala Baia de Pemba

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ferroviario Nacala or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +46.1%
7.69
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ferroviario Nacala attacking → ← attacking Baia de Pemba

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ferroviario Nacala scored in 50% of their last 28 games.

Baia de Pemba let in goals in 58% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Ferroviario Nacala went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Baia de Pemba lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 32
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.38
0.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ferroviario Beira954011:319
2UD Songo944112:816
3Associacao Black Bulls835010:314
4Ferroviario Lichinga74218:414
5Ferroviario Nampula741211:1113
6Costa do Sol833210:712
7Ferroviario Nacala73316:412
8Sofala92435:1010
9ENH Vilankulo71518:68
10Ferroviario Maputo82243:58
11AD Pemba72144:97
12Chingale de Tete90451:84
13Baia de Pemba70343:73
14Maxaquene80353:103