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Ferroviario Nacala vs UD Songo

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola
Sun, Jul 19, 2026
VS
12:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ferroviario Nacala host UD Songo in the Mocambola. Chances could be at a premium in this fixture. Recent numbers: Ferroviario Nacala at 0.75 goals for, 0.5 against; UD Songo at 1.25 for, 1.25 against. Head-to-head, Ferroviario Nacala have won 2 to UD Songo's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Sep 13, 2025, ending 2:0. xG projections (1.00 - 0.88) back UD Songo to edge this. API goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Ferroviario Nacala
28%
Draws
50%
UD Songo
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: UD Songo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Ferroviario Nacala haven't matched UD Songo's recent run of results.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on UD Songo taking it.
  • Regular Mocambola form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.4%
Ferroviario Nacala Clean Sheet 20%
UD Songo Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ferroviario Nacala UD Songo
Matches Played 27 26
Wins 10 19
Draws 10 5
Losses 7 2
Goals Scored 0.75 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.5 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2025 Mocambola
UD Songo vs Ferroviario Nacala
2:0
May 18, 2025 Mocambola
Ferroviario Nacala vs UD Songo
2:2
Jul 23, 2023 Mocambola
Ferroviario Nacala vs UD Songo
1:0
Apr 16, 2023 Mocambola
UD Songo vs Ferroviario Nacala
1:0
Oct 16, 2022 Mocambola
Ferroviario Nacala vs UD Songo
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferroviario Nacala 24 / 100
UD Songo 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ferroviario Nacala UD Songo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UDS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Ferroviario Nacala remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Ferroviario Nacala scored in 52% of their last 27 outings.

UD Songo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 46% of 26 matches.

Scoring Trends

Ferroviario Nacala VS UD Songo
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ferroviario Beira954011:319
2UD Songo944112:816
3Associacao Black Bulls835010:314
4Ferroviario Lichinga74218:414
5Ferroviario Nampula741211:1113
6Costa do Sol833210:712
7Ferroviario Nacala73316:412
8Sofala92435:1010
9ENH Vilankulo71518:68
10Ferroviario Maputo82243:58
11AD Pemba72144:97
12Chingale de Tete90451:84
13Baia de Pemba70343:73
14Maxaquene80353:103