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Ferroviario Nampula vs Ferroviario Nacala

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Mocambola game between Ferroviario Nampula and Ferroviario Nacala finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ferroviario Nacala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Ferroviario Nampula
20%
Draws
29%
Ferroviario Nacala
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ferroviario Nampula

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ferroviario Nampula come out ahead of Ferroviario Nacala on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%
Ferroviario Nampula Clean Sheet 20%
Ferroviario Nacala Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ferroviario Nampula Ferroviario Nacala
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 12 10
Draws 6 6
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.11 0.56
Goals Conceded 1.19 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Mocambola
Ferroviario Nampula vs Ferroviario Nacala
1:3
Dec 4, 2025 Mocambola
Ferroviario Nampula vs Ferroviario Nacala
1:0
Aug 21, 2025 Mocambola
Ferroviario Nacala vs Ferroviario Nampula
0:0
Sep 16, 2023 Mocambola
Ferroviario Nampula vs Ferroviario Nacala
1:0
May 20, 2023 Mocambola
Ferroviario Nacala vs Ferroviario Nampula
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferroviario Nampula 32 / 100
Ferroviario Nacala 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ferroviario Nampula Ferroviario Nacala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ferroviario Nacala Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ferroviario Nampula scored in 67% of their last 27 outings.

Ferroviario Nampula went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Away concern: Ferroviario Nacala has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Ferroviario Nacala conceded in 48% of 27 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Ferroviario Nampula VS Ferroviario Nacala
0.75 Goals Scored 0.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 13%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ferroviario Nampula

(Home)
13 Sept
Ferroviario Lichinga
3 : 0
Ferroviario Nampula
30 Aug
Ferroviario Nampula
2 : 1
ENH Vilankulo
26 Aug
AD Pemba
2 : 0
Ferroviario Nampula
22 Aug
Baia de Pemba
0 : 0
Ferroviario Nampula
18 Aug
Ferroviario Nampula
2 : 1
Ferroviario Maputo
Page 1 of 6

Ferroviario Nacala

(Away)
16 Sept
Ferroviario Lichinga
0 : 0
Ferroviario Nacala
02 Sept
Ferroviario Nacala
1 : 0
ENH Vilankulo
25 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0
Ferroviario Nacala
21 Aug
AD Pemba
1 : 0
Ferroviario Nacala
17 Aug
Ferroviario Nacala
0 : 1
Associacao Black Bulls
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Associacao Black Bulls 19 13 5 1 28:9 44
2 Costa do Sol 18 10 4 4 24:11 34
3 Ferroviario Beira 18 9 7 2 23:12 34
4 UD Songo 18 6 10 2 20:13 28
5 Ferroviario Lichinga 17 8 4 5 16:13 28
6 Ferroviario Nampula 17 8 4 5 19:21 28
7 Ferroviario Maputo 18 6 5 7 13:11 23
8 ENH Vilankulo 17 4 8 5 19:16 20
9 Ferroviario Nacala 17 5 5 7 8:12 20
10 Baia de Pemba 17 4 7 6 9:12 19
11 Sofala 19 4 6 9 8:19 18
12 AD Pemba 17 5 2 10 9:19 17
13 Maxaquene 18 1 7 10 8:23 10
14 Chingale de Tete 18 1 6 11 4:17 9
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)