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Ferroviario vs Iguatu

Brazil Brazil

Cearense Estadio Presidente Vargas, Fortaleza
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Kiuan
Assist: Rosa B.
30'
Sub
Joao Pedro In: Bruno Menezes
Out: Joao Pedro
31'
Biel Potiguar

AI Match Summary

The Cearense game between Ferroviario and Iguatu finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ferroviario.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Ferroviario
30%
Draws
37%
Iguatu
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Iguatu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Ferroviario carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Ferroviario's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Cearense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Ferroviario here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Ferroviario Clean Sheet 20%
Iguatu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ferroviario Iguatu
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 12
Draws 9 13
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.23 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Cearense
Ferroviario vs Iguatu
2:0
Mar 2, 2024 Cearense
Iguatu vs Ferroviario
1:3
Feb 24, 2024 Cearense
Ferroviario vs Iguatu
1:0
Feb 8, 2023 Cearense
Iguatu vs Ferroviario
2:1
Jan 30, 2022 Cearense
Ferroviario vs Iguatu
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ferroviario Compare

Top Goalscorer Kiuan
1 Goals
Assists Leader Carlinhos
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Iguatu Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferroviario 36 / 100
Iguatu 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ferroviario Iguatu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ferroviario's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Iguatu's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Ferroviario has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ferroviario VS Iguatu
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ferroviario

(Home)
26 Jul
Ferroviario
1 : 2
Goiatuba EC
18 Jul
Goiatuba EC
3 : 0
Ferroviario
12 Jul
Ferroviario
3 : 0
Imperatriz
04 Jul
Imperatriz
1 : 1
Ferroviario
28 Jun
Ferroviario
2 : 0
Central SC
Page 1 of 6

Iguatu

(Away)
25 Jul
Iguatu
1 : 2
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
18 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 1
Iguatu
12 Jul
Iguatu
2 : 1
Maguary
04 Jul
Maguary
2 : 3
Iguatu
27 Jun
Iguatu
1 : 1
Tuna Luso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fortaleza 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
2 Ferroviario 3 1 1 1 3:5 4
3 Horizonte 3 0 1 2 1:6 1
Promotion - Cearense (Play Offs)
Promotion - Cearense (5th-6th places)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ceara 3 2 1 0 9:1 7
2 Floresta EC 3 1 1 1 1:1 4
3 Iguatu 3 0 2 1 2:4 2
Promotion - Cearense (Play Offs)
Promotion - Cearense (5th-6th places)