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Fezzanese vs Montevarchi

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Tommasini E.
40' Event
Orlandi A.
78' Event
Farini C.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 game between Fezzanese and Montevarchi finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montevarchi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Fezzanese
20%
Draws
40%
Montevarchi
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Montevarchi carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Fezzanese taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Fezzanese Clean Sheet 20%
Montevarchi Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fezzanese Montevarchi
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 7 11
Draws 8 16
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.17 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.7 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.60
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Fezzanese vs Montevarchi
1:3
Nov 24, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Fezzanese
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fezzanese Compare

Top Goalscorer Mariotti L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Montevarchi Compare

Top Goalscorer Tommasini E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Orlandi A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.55
Avg xA / game 0.33

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fezzanese 42 / 100
Montevarchi 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fezzanese Montevarchi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fezzanese scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Fezzanese has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Montevarchi has conceded goals in 53% of their last 36 outings.

Scoring Trends

Fezzanese VS Montevarchi
1 Goals Scored 0.38
0.83 Goals Conceded 0.5
83% Over 1.5 25%
17% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fezzanese

(Home)
27 Sept
Imperia Calcio
2 : 0
Fezzanese
21 Sept
Fezzanese
0 : 2
Gozzano
16 Sept
Sestri Levante
0 : 3
Fezzanese
13 Sept
Fezzanese
2 : 0
Chisola
06 Sept
Bra
1 : 1
Fezzanese
Page 1 of 6

Montevarchi

(Away)
27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0
SCD Progresso
20 Sept
Siena
3 : 0
Montevarchi
16 Sept
Seravezza Pozzi
1 : 1
Montevarchi
12 Sept
Montevarchi
4 : 1
Tau
06 Sept
Lucchese
2 : 1
Montevarchi
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Livorno 34 21 9 4 74:44 72
2 Fulgens Foligno 34 17 9 8 61:44 60
3 Seravezza Pozzi 34 16 11 7 53:39 59
4 Ghiviborgo 34 17 4 13 65:57 55
5 Orvietana 34 15 8 11 44:41 53
6 Siena 34 14 10 10 35:32 52
7 Grosseto 34 13 11 10 39:34 50
8 Ostiamare 34 12 9 13 49:53 45
9 Poggibonsi 34 12 7 15 32:36 43
10 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 11 10 13 26:26 43
11 Montevarchi 34 9 14 11 36:39 41
12 Flaminia 34 10 10 14 42:43 40
13 Follonica Gavorrano 34 10 10 14 40:45 40
14 Terranuova Traiana 34 8 15 11 34:47 39
15 Figline 34 9 11 14 29:33 38
16 Sporting Trestina 34 9 11 14 35:45 38
17 Sangiovannese 34 9 9 16 30:38 36
18 Fezzanese 34 6 8 20 35:63 26
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 (Play Out)