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Fezzanese vs Poggibonsi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Mariotti L.
38' Event
Vitiello D.
58' Event
Vitiello D.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 game between Fezzanese and Poggibonsi finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Poggibonsi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Fezzanese
20%
Draws
36%
Poggibonsi
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Fezzanese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Poggibonsi carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Fezzanese Clean Sheet 68%
Poggibonsi Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fezzanese Poggibonsi
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 7 8
Draws 8 8
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 1.17 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 12, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Fezzanese vs Poggibonsi
1:3
Sep 15, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Poggibonsi vs Fezzanese
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fezzanese Compare

Top Goalscorer Mariotti L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Poggibonsi Compare

Top Goalscorer Vitiello D.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fezzanese 41 / 100
Poggibonsi 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fezzanese Poggibonsi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fezzanese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Fezzanese's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Poggibonsi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 31 matches.

Fezzanese went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fezzanese VS Poggibonsi
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1
86% Over 1.5 50%
29% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Fezzanese

(Home)
04 Oct
Fezzanese
1 : 2
Valenzana
27 Sept
Imperia Calcio
2 : 0
Fezzanese
21 Sept
Fezzanese
0 : 2
Gozzano
16 Sept
Sestri Levante
0 : 3
Fezzanese
13 Sept
Fezzanese
2 : 0
Chisola
Page 1 of 6

Poggibonsi

(Away)
10 May
Orvietana
1 : 0
Poggibonsi
03 May
Poggibonsi
1 : 0
Scandicci
26 Apr
Cannara
3 : 2
Poggibonsi
19 Apr
Poggibonsi
0 : 0
Tau
12 Apr
Camaiore Calcio
1 : 1
Poggibonsi
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Livorno 34 21 9 4 74:44 72
2 Fulgens Foligno 34 17 9 8 61:44 60
3 Seravezza Pozzi 34 16 11 7 53:39 59
4 Ghiviborgo 34 17 4 13 65:57 55
5 Orvietana 34 15 8 11 44:41 53
6 Siena 34 14 10 10 35:32 52
7 Grosseto 34 13 11 10 39:34 50
8 Ostiamare 34 12 9 13 49:53 45
9 Poggibonsi 34 12 7 15 32:36 43
10 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 11 10 13 26:26 43
11 Montevarchi 34 9 14 11 36:39 41
12 Flaminia 34 10 10 14 42:43 40
13 Follonica Gavorrano 34 10 10 14 40:45 40
14 Terranuova Traiana 34 8 15 11 34:47 39
15 Figline 34 9 11 14 29:33 38
16 Sporting Trestina 34 9 11 14 35:45 38
17 Sangiovannese 34 9 9 16 30:38 36
18 Fezzanese 34 6 8 20 35:63 26
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 (Play Out)