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Fiji W vs Samoa W

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Nations Cup Women
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Dowsing L.
Assist: Kitiona O.
16' Event
Dowsing L.
Assist: Kitiona O.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-2. The second leg ended 0-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Fiji W
15%
Draws
57%
Samoa W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Samoa W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fiji W come out ahead of Samoa W on wins alone.
  • 28% — that's where the model lands on Fiji W taking it.
  • Fiji W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Samoa W, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Samoa W here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Fiji W Clean Sheet 18%
Samoa W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fiji W Samoa W
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 17 14
Draws 2 2
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 2.06 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.72 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.77 1.35
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 19, 2025 OFC Nations Cup Women
Fiji W vs Samoa W
0:2
Jul 12, 2019 Pacific Games Women
Samoa W vs Fiji W
1:0
Oct 25, 2018 Friendly International Women
Fiji W vs Samoa W
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fiji W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.89

Samoa W Compare

Top Goalscorer Dowsing L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.75

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fiji W 40 / 100
Samoa W 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fiji W Samoa W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FIJ Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fiji W scored in 81% of their last 32 games.

Samoa W let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.67 goals as a typical output.

Samoa W lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fiji W VS Samoa W
1.38 Goals Scored 1.33
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.17
88% Over 1.5 83%
75% Over 2.5 67%
13% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Fiji W

(Home)
06 Jun
Hong Kong W
3 : 1
Fiji W
03 Jun
Hong Kong W
3 : 2
Fiji W
11 Apr
New Zealand W
5 : 0
Fiji W
08 Mar
Papua New Guinea W
1 : 0
Fiji W
05 Mar
Vanuatu W
0 : 1
Fiji W
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Samoa W

(Away)
05 Mar
Samoa W
2 : 1
Solomon Islands W
02 Mar
American Samoa W
1 : 0
Samoa W
27 Feb
New Zealand W
8 : 0
Samoa W
19 Jul
Fiji W
0 : 2
Samoa W
16 Jul
Solomon Islands W
2 : 1
Samoa W
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Papua New Guinea W 2
Fiji W 1
Solomon Islands W 2
Samoa W 1
Final
Papua New Guinea W 2
Solomon Islands W 3
Fiji W 0
Samoa W 2