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Finland W vs Portugal W

World World

World Cup Women Tammelan Stadion
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Finland W play Portugal W in the World Cup Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, Finland W averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Portugal W averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. In past meetings, Finland W won 2, Portugal W won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 9, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Finland W and 1.88 for Portugal W. This points to a Finland W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Finland W
27%
Draws
36%
Portugal W
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Finland W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Finland W picked up more points recently compared to Portugal W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Finland W Clean Sheet 10%
Portugal W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Finland W Portugal W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 15
Draws 8 5
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.4 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 9, 2026 World Cup Women
Finland W vs Portugal W
3:1
Mar 3, 2026 World Cup Women
Portugal W vs Finland W
2:0
Feb 19, 2021 Euro Women
Finland W vs Portugal W
1:0
Nov 12, 2019 Euro Women
Portugal W vs Finland W
1:1
Oct 8, 2018 Friendly International Women
Portugal W vs Finland W
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Finland W Compare

Top Goalscorer Lehtola N.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Nystrom E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Portugal W Compare

Top Goalscorer Nazareth K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Finland W 35 / 100
Portugal W 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Finland W Portugal W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Finland W or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Finland W attacking → ← attacking Portugal W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Finland W scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Portugal W let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Finland W went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Portugal W lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 50
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Wales W642017:514
2Czech Republic W632118:811
3Albania W62139:147
4Montenegro W60156:231
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Switzerland W651018:516
2Turkey W641111:513
3Northern Ireland W620410:96
4Malta W60064:240
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Portugal W650117:415
2Finland W650115:615
3Slovakia W62048:176
4Latvia W60064:170
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Scotland W642024:214
2Belgium W642022:114
3Israel W620410:206
4Luxembourg W60061:340