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Finn Harps vs Bray

Ireland Ireland

Division 1 Finn Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This Division 1 encounter between Finn Harps and Bray promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Finn Harps averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.9 conceded in recent matches. Bray shows a form average of 1.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Finn Harps, 1 wins for Bray, and 2 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 04.05.26 ended in a 2:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.31 for Finn Harps and 2.75 for Bray, suggesting the primary value lies in the Bray double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Finn Harps
30%
Draws
42%
Bray
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bray

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Finn Harps picked up more points recently compared to Bray.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 2.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 66%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 66%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66%
Finn Harps Clean Sheet 10%
Bray Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Finn Harps Bray
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 5 12
Draws 8 7
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 0.93 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.85 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 3.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.38 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

04.05.26 Division 1
Finn Harps vs Bray
2:1
06.04.26 Division 1
Bray vs Finn Harps
2:2
19.09.25 Division 1
Bray vs Finn Harps
3:2
15.08.25 FAI Cup
Finn Harps vs Bray
3:1
04.08.25 Division 1
Finn Harps vs Bray
2:2

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Finn Harps

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Bray

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)
Attacking Style Keep the ball
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Finn Harps Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A
0 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Bray Compare

Top Goalscorer Achara I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.85
Avg xA / game 1.74

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Finn Harps 27 / 100
Bray 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Finn Harps Bray

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Bray or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.2%
1.67
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Finn Harps 31%
Bray 34%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Finn Harps 27%
Bray 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Finn Harps 28%
Bray 42%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Finn Harps 29%
Bray 40%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Finn Harps 25%
Bray 46%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Finn Harps 32%
Bray 48%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Finn Harps attacking → ← attacking Bray

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Finn Harps have found the net in 67% of their last 27 matches.

Bray have conceded at least one goal in 87% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 4.00 goals per match.

Finn Harps remained undefeated in 2 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Bray suffered defeat in 1 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

23 Points in last 5 43
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 3.13
2.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Cork City22173243:1154
2UC Dublin21113735:1936
3Bray2297640:3034
4Cobh Ramblers2294925:3031
5Wexford2276925:3027
6Kerry2267922:2725
7Longford2167821:2625
8Athlone22661019:2724
9Finn Harps22571020:3722
10Treaty United22481021:3420