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Finn Harps vs Longford - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ireland Ireland

Division 1 Finn Park, Ballybofey
Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Manuel P.
35'
O'Brien A.
39'
Hough J.

AI Match Summary

Longford in this Division 1 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Longford.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Finn Harps
15%
Draws
59%
Longford
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Longford

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Finn Harps haven't matched Longford's recent run of results.
  • 59% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Finn Harps Clean Sheet 10%
Longford Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Finn Harps Longford
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 4 13
Draws 4 6
Losses 20 10
Goals Scored 0.82 1.69
Goals Conceded 2.18 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 Division 1
Finn Harps vs Longford
0:1
Aug 3, 2026 Division 1
Longford vs Finn Harps
5:0
May 22, 2026 Division 1
Finn Harps vs Longford
2:2
Mar 28, 2026 Division 1
Longford vs Finn Harps
0:1
Sep 5, 2025 Division 1
Longford vs Finn Harps
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Finn Harps Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Longford Compare

Top Goalscorer Williams D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Finn Harps 34 / 100
Longford 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Finn Harps Longford

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Longford Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:6
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Longford has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Finn Harps's goal record stands at 54% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Finn Harps stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Finn Harps VS Longford
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Finn Harps

(Home)
02 Oct
Finn Harps
1 : 2
Kerry
25 Sept
Treaty United
2 : 1
Finn Harps
18 Sept
Finn Harps
0 : 1
Longford
11 Sept
Wexford
1 : 3
Finn Harps
04 Sept
Finn Harps
0 : 1
Athlone
Page 1 of 6

Longford

(Away)
02 Oct
Wexford
3 : 3
Longford
26 Sept
Longford
2 : 1
Cork City
18 Sept
Finn Harps
0 : 1
Longford
12 Sept
Longford
0 : 2
Treaty United
05 Sept
Longford
0 : 1
Kerry
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cork City 34 22 5 7 71:34 71
2 Bray 34 15 8 11 65:49 53
3 UC Dublin 34 15 7 12 61:48 52
4 Cobh Ramblers 34 14 7 13 46:50 49
5 Longford 34 13 9 12 47:45 48
6 Kerry 34 13 9 12 42:40 48
7 Athlone 34 13 9 12 41:40 48
8 Wexford 34 11 8 15 40:51 41
9 Treaty United 34 9 9 16 33:52 36
10 Finn Harps 34 6 7 21 31:68 25
Promotion - Premier Division 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 (Play Offs)