Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Finn Harps vs Treaty United

Ireland Ireland

Division 1 Finn Park, Ballybofey
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Conroy C.
45'
Brogan O.
46'
Sub
Lumingo N. In: Bosakani B.
Out: Lumingo N.

AI Match Summary

Treaty United in this Division 1 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Treaty United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Finn Harps
15%
Draws
57%
Treaty United
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Treaty United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Treaty United lately — more wins on the board than Finn Harps.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Finn Harps taking it.
  • Regular Division 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Finn Harps Clean Sheet 10%
Treaty United Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Finn Harps Treaty United
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 9
Draws 4 7
Losses 20 13
Goals Scored 0.79 1.03
Goals Conceded 2.07 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2026 Division 1
Treaty United vs Finn Harps
2:1
Jul 10, 2026 Division 1
Finn Harps vs Treaty United
0:1
May 15, 2026 Division 1
Treaty United vs Finn Harps
3:0
Mar 13, 2026 Division 1
Finn Harps vs Treaty United
2:2
Aug 29, 2025 Division 1
Finn Harps vs Treaty United
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Finn Harps Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Treaty United Compare

Top Goalscorer Conroy C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Finn Harps 40 / 100
Treaty United 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Finn Harps Treaty United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Treaty United conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Treaty United lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Finn Harps scored in 52% of their last 29 games.

Scoring Trends

Finn Harps VS Treaty United
1 Goals Scored 1.13
3 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Finn Harps

(Home)
25 Sept
Treaty United
2 : 1
Finn Harps
18 Sept
Finn Harps
0 : 1
Longford
11 Sept
Wexford
1 : 3
Finn Harps
04 Sept
Finn Harps
0 : 1
Athlone
28 Aug
UC Dublin
5 : 4
Finn Harps
Page 1 of 6

Treaty United

(Away)
25 Sept
Treaty United
2 : 1
Finn Harps
18 Sept
Bray
2 : 0
Treaty United
12 Sept
Longford
0 : 2
Treaty United
04 Sept
Treaty United
0 : 1
Wexford
28 Aug
Kerry
3 : 1
Treaty United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cork City 33 22 5 6 70:32 71
2 Bray 33 15 8 10 64:45 53
3 UC Dublin 33 14 7 12 57:48 49
4 Longford 33 13 8 12 44:42 47
5 Cobh Ramblers 33 13 7 13 42:49 46
6 Kerry 33 12 9 12 40:39 45
7 Athlone 33 12 9 12 39:39 45
8 Wexford 33 11 7 15 37:48 40
9 Treaty United 33 9 9 15 33:48 36
10 Finn Harps 33 6 7 20 30:66 25
Promotion - Premier Division 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 (Play Offs)