Sport Picks
Fiorentina vs Jagiellonia
Europe
Conference League 2025/2026 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence 
Match Events
7'
7'
Comuzzo P.
17'
17'
Jozwiak K.
23'
23'
Mazurek B.
AI Match Summary
Jagiellonia in this Conference League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-4. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
46%
15%
39%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Fiorentina
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Jagiellonia lately — more wins on the board than Fiorentina.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- Jagiellonia arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Jagiellonia, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Fiorentina Clean Sheet 12%
Jagiellonia Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Fiorentina | Jagiellonia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 17 |
| Draws | 9 | 5 |
| Losses | 7 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.53 | 1.72 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.23 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 26, 2026 Conference League
Fiorentina vs Jagiellonia
2:4
Feb 19, 2026 Conference League
Jagiellonia vs Fiorentina
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Fiorentina Compare
Top Goalscorer Fagioli N.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Jagiellonia Compare
Top Goalscorer Mazurek B.
3 Goals Assists Leader Imaz J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Fiorentina 30 / 100
Jagiellonia 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Fiorentina Jagiellonia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Jagiellonia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 4.50 goals.
Fiorentina found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).
Defensive concern: Jagiellonia conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.
Solid form: Fiorentina remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Fiorentina VS Jagiellonia
1.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Fiorentina
(Home) 20 Sept
Fiorentina
1 : 1 Napoli
15 Sept
Fiorentina
3 : 0 Pisa
11 Sept
Venezia
2 : 4 Fiorentina
05 Sept
Fiorentina
1 : 2 Torino
29 Aug
Fiorentina
0 : 3 Frosinone
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20 Sept
Fiorentina
1 : 1 Napoli
15 Sept
Fiorentina
3 : 0 Pisa
05 Sept
Fiorentina
1 : 2 Torino
29 Aug
Fiorentina
0 : 3 Frosinone
14 Aug
Fiorentina
4 : 1 Benevento
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Jagiellonia
(Away) 29 Sept
Jagiellonia
5 : 0 Suduva
20 Sept
Jagiellonia
1 : 3 Legia
16 Sept
Olympiacos Piraeus
2 : 1 Jagiellonia
11 Sept
Wisla
2 : 0 Jagiellonia
06 Sept
Jagiellonia
2 : 1 Slask Wroclaw
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Olympiacos Piraeus
2 : 1 Jagiellonia
11 Sept
Wisla
2 : 0 Jagiellonia
03 Sept
Lech Poznan
2 : 1 Jagiellonia
30 Aug
Rakow Czestochowa
2 : 5 Jagiellonia
27 Aug
Iberia 1999
1 : 2 Jagiellonia
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
KuPS 0
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar -
TBD -
Noah 1
AZ Alkmaar 4
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
Zrinjski 1
Crystal Palace 3
AEK Larnaca -
TBD -
Jagiellonia 4
Fiorentina 5
Rakow Czestochowa -
TBD -
Shkendija Tetovo 0
Samsunspor 5
Rayo Vallecano -
TBD -
Drita 4
Celje 6
AEK -
TBD -
Sigma Olomouc 3
Lausanne 2
Mainz -
TBD -
Omonia 1
Rijeka 4
Strasbourg -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar 4
AZ Alkmaar 6
Sparta Prague 1
Crystal Palace 2
AEK Larnaca 1
Fiorentina 4
Rakow Czestochowa 2
Samsunspor 2
Rayo Vallecano 3
Celje 2
AEK 4
Sigma Olomouc 0
Mainz 2
Rijeka 2
Strasbourg 3
Quarter-finals
Shakhtar 5
AZ Alkmaar 2
Crystal Palace 4
Fiorentina 2
Rayo Vallecano 4
AEK 3
Mainz 2
Strasbourg 4
Semi-finals
Shakhtar 2
Crystal Palace 5
Rayo Vallecano 2
Strasbourg 0
Final
Crystal Palace 1
Rayo Vallecano 0
