Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group D 2016/2017

Virtus Castelfranco

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Fiorenzuola play Virtus Castelfranco in the Serie D - Group D 2016/2017. It looks like a close match. Recently, Fiorenzuola averaged 0.69 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. Virtus Castelfranco averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. In past meetings, Fiorenzuola won 2, Virtus Castelfranco won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 7, 2017 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.97 for Fiorenzuola and 1.44 for Virtus Castelfranco. This points to a Virtus Castelfranco double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%

Fiorenzuola

15%

Draws

46%

Virtus Castelfranco

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Virtus Castelfranco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Fiorenzuola picked up more points recently compared to Virtus Castelfranco.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.97 vs 1.44 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 68%

Over 2.5 Goals 44%

Over 3.5 Goals 26%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%

Fiorenzuola Clean Sheet 16%

Virtus Castelfranco Clean Sheet 15%

First Half Goal 61%

Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Fiorenzuola	Virtus Castelfranco
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	7	7
Draws	4	8
Losses	21	15
Goals Scored	0.69	0.8
Goals Conceded	1.41	1.3

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2017 Serie D - Group D

Virtus Castelfranco vs Fiorenzuola

Possession: 50% - 56% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Dec 18, 2016 Serie D - Group D

Fiorenzuola vs Virtus Castelfranco

Possession: 45% - 42% Cards: 2 - 2

2:0

Mar 29, 2015 Serie D - Group D

Fiorenzuola vs Virtus Castelfranco

Possession: 54% - 52% Cards: 3 - 1

1:2

Nov 16, 2014 Serie D - Group D

Virtus Castelfranco vs Fiorenzuola

Possession: 43% - 57% Cards: 1 - 4

0:4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fiorenzuola 38 / 100

Virtus Castelfranco 44 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Fiorenzuola Virtus Castelfranco

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Virtus Castelfranco or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26%

3.23

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.7%

2.63

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Fiorenzuola attacking → ← attacking Virtus Castelfranco

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fiorenzuola scored in 50% of their last 32 games.

Virtus Castelfranco let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Fiorenzuola went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Virtus Castelfranco lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 29

0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ravenna	34	17	14	3	52:26	65
2	Imolese	34	18	9	7	60:35	63
3	Delta Porto Tolle	34	17	10	7	57:37	61
4	Lentigione	34	16	10	8	40:31	58
5	Correggese	34	16	8	10	58:48	56
6	Castelvetro	34	15	5	14	60:57	50
7	Scandicci	34	13	7	14	45:55	46
8	Pianese	34	12	10	12	46:48	46
9	Mezzolara	34	11	12	11	44:46	45
10	Rignanese	34	11	11	12	34:35	44
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	34	11	11	12	50:48	44
12	Fiorenzuola	34	12	7	15	39:45	43
13	Colligiana	34	10	13	11	46:47	43
14	Adriese	34	11	6	17	46:51	39
15	Ribelle	34	8	15	11	45:46	38
16	Sangiovannese	34	10	7	17	42:51	37
17	Virtus Castelfranco	34	8	9	17	25:41	33
18	Poggibonsi	34	6	4	24	24:66	21