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FK Aluksne vs FK Smiltene

Latvia Latvia

Latvian Cup 2010/2011
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AI Match Summary

This match ends 4-5, with FK Smiltene advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
FK Aluksne
6%
Draws
4%
FK Smiltene
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: FK Aluksne

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and FK Smiltene come out ahead of FK Aluksne on wins alone.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on FK Aluksne taking it.
  • FK Smiltene arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor FK Smiltene, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
FK Aluksne Clean Sheet 20%
FK Smiltene Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Aluksne FK Smiltene
Matches Played 4 30
Wins 2 6
Draws 0 7
Losses 2 17
Goals Scored 0 1.25
Goals Conceded 0 2.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2010 Latvian Cup
FK Aluksne vs FK Smiltene
4:5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Aluksne 85 / 100
FK Smiltene 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Aluksne FK Smiltene

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Smiltene has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 9.00 goals as a typical output.

FK Aluksne found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (4 games).

Difficult form: FK Smiltene registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS FK Smiltene
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 2.88
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Aluksne

(Home)
19 Jun
FK Aluksne
0 : 3
Upesciems
04 Jun
FK Aluksne
2 : 0
Bebri
22 Aug
FK Aluksne
4 : 5
FK Smiltene
25 Jul
FK Aluksne
7 : 1
FK Alberts

FK Smiltene

(Away)
25 Jul
FK Smiltene
3 : 5
RFS 2
19 Jul
FK Smiltene
1 : 0
Rezekne
04 Jul
Marupe
2 : 1
FK Smiltene
28 Jun
FK Smiltene
2 : 4
Skanste
22 Jun
FK Smiltene
1 : 4
Valmiera
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
FK Daugava Riga3
Valmiera1
RFS1
Ventspils2
Skonto0
FC Daugava Daugavpils1
Jelgava0
FK Liepaja1
Semi-finals
FC Daugava Daugavpils0
Ventspils2
FK Liepaja2
FK Daugava Riga1
Final
Ventspils3
FK Liepaja1