Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FK Atmosfera vs Neptunas

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Trakselis A.
57'
Balde U.
78' Event
Seki K.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The I Lyga game between FK Atmosfera and Neptunas finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Neptunas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
FK Atmosfera
20%
Draws
57%
Neptunas
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Neptunas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Neptunas come out ahead of FK Atmosfera on wins alone.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Neptunas taking it.
  • Regular I Lyga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
FK Atmosfera Clean Sheet 16%
Neptunas Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Atmosfera Neptunas
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 17
Draws 6 3
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.76 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 I Lyga
FK Atmosfera vs Neptunas
1:3
Sep 27, 2025 I Lyga
FK Atmosfera vs Neptunas
4:2
May 23, 2025 I Lyga
Neptunas vs FK Atmosfera
1:0
Aug 3, 2024 I Lyga
FK Atmosfera vs Neptunas
1:0
Mar 8, 2024 I Lyga
Neptunas vs FK Atmosfera
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FK Atmosfera Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Neptunas Compare

Top Goalscorer Trakselis A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Urbys S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Atmosfera 23 / 100
Neptunas 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Atmosfera Neptunas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Neptunas Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Atmosfera found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Neptunas let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

FK Atmosfera has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

FK Atmosfera VS Neptunas
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Atmosfera

(Home)
14 Aug
Transinvest 2
2 : 0
FK Atmosfera
08 Aug
FK Atmosfera
1 : 1
Siauliai 2
01 Aug
FK Kauno Zalgiris 2
3 : 1
FK Atmosfera
25 Jul
FK Atmosfera
4 : 1
Hegelmann Litauen 2
01 Jul
FK Atmosfera
0 : 1
BE1 NFA
Page 1 of 6

Neptunas

(Away)
08 Aug
Tauras Taurage
0 : 2
Neptunas
01 Aug
Garliava
0 : 1
Neptunas
25 Jul
Neptunas
2 : 1
Siauliai 2
20 Jul
Transinvest 2
2 : 2
Neptunas
27 Jun
Dainava Alytus
1 : 0
Neptunas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Minija 20 17 1 2 53:11 52
2 FK Babrungas 19 15 3 1 32:6 48
3 Neptunas 19 12 2 5 27:20 38
4 BE1 NFA 19 11 2 6 31:24 35
5 Tauras Taurage 19 11 2 6 35:22 35
6 Dainava Alytus 18 10 4 4 32:18 34
7 BFA Vilnius 19 10 1 8 29:29 31
8 Zalgiris 2 20 9 4 7 31:28 31
9 FK Atmosfera 19 7 4 8 29:24 25
10 Jonava 20 6 5 9 24:26 23
11 Garliava 18 6 4 8 23:19 22
12 Transinvest 2 20 5 3 12 20:46 18
13 Hegelmann Litauen 2 20 5 1 14 21:45 16
14 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 20 4 1 15 15:34 13
15 Ekranas 20 3 2 15 19:42 11
16 Siauliai 2 20 2 5 13 18:45 11
Promotion - TOPLYGA 2027 (Main)
Promotion - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga (Relegation)