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FK Baranovici vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Belarus Belarus

Vysshaya Liga Lokomotiv Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FK Baranovici play Arsenal Dzerzhinsk in the Vysshaya Liga. It looks like a close match. Recently, FK Baranovici averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded. Arsenal Dzerzhinsk averaged 1.11 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. In past meetings, FK Baranovici won 1, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 8, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for FK Baranovici and 1.25 for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk. This points to a Arsenal Dzerzhinsk double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
FK Baranovici
29%
Draws
39%
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Draw rate projection: 29% Favored: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • FK Baranovici picked up more points recently compared to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
FK Baranovici Clean Sheet 19%
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Baranovici Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Matches Played 26 27
Wins 7 9
Draws 6 7
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.08 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.46 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
FK Baranovici vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
1:1
Feb 7, 2026 Club Friendly
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs FK Baranovici
0:4
Oct 28, 2023 Pershaya Liga
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs FK Baranovici
3:0
Jun 24, 2023 Pershaya Liga
FK Baranovici vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
2:2
Oct 16, 2021 Pershaya Liga
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs FK Baranovici
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FK Baranovici Compare

Top Goalscorer Lebedev F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Compare

Top Goalscorer Antilevskiy D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Baranovici 33 / 100
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Baranovici Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

FK Baranovici attacking → ← attacking Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Baranovici scored in 62% of their last 26 games.

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk let in goals in 74% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

FK Baranovici went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 34
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Din. Minsk14103126:1233
2ML Vitebsk1494130:1331
3FC Gomel1474320:1225
4Isloch Minsk1374222:1025
5Zhodino1365223:1023
6Dynamo Brest1463520:1421
7Neman1362515:1320
8FC Minsk1454519:1919
9Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1346317:1818
10Slavia Mozyr1436513:1815
11Vitebsk1335512:1614
12FK Baranovici1333713:2512
13Dnepr Mogilev1325611:1911
14Belshina1331912:2510
15BATE141679:179
16Naftan14131010:316