Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FK Karosta vs FK Madona Kvarcs

Latvia Latvia

Latvian Cup 2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FK Karosta in this Latvian Cup 2018 tie, finishing 9-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
FK Karosta
6%
Draws
4%
FK Madona Kvarcs
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: FK Karosta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FK Karosta lately — more wins on the board than FK Madona Kvarcs.
  • Model gives FK Karosta a 90% chance of winning this.
  • FK Karosta have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor FK Karosta, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 89%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 89%
Over 3.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 39%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
FK Karosta Clean Sheet 16%
FK Madona Kvarcs Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Karosta FK Madona Kvarcs
Matches Played 20 11
Wins 14 4
Draws 0 0
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 3.25 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.75 5.4
Expected Goals (xG) 3.25 1.20
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 5.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 16, 2019 Latvian Cup
FK Karosta vs FK Madona Kvarcs
8:1
May 27, 2018 Latvian Cup
FK Karosta vs FK Madona Kvarcs
9:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Karosta 84 / 100
FK Madona Kvarcs 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Karosta FK Madona Kvarcs

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Karosta scored in 84% of their last 19 games.

Defensive concern: FK Madona Kvarcs conceded in 82% of 11 recent games.

Games between these two average 9.50 goals.

FK Madona Kvarcs's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

FK Karosta VS FK Madona Kvarcs
3.25 Goals Scored 1.2
1.75 Goals Conceded 5.4
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
75% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Karosta

(Home)
27 Nov
Dinamo Riga
2 : 1
FK Karosta
20 Nov
FK Karosta
4 : 2
Dinamo Riga
17 Jul
Albatroz
5 : 1
FK Karosta
04 Jul
Plavinas
0 : 1
FK Karosta
06 Sept
Grobina
3 : 0
FK Karosta
Page 1 of 4

FK Madona Kvarcs

(Away)
12 Jun
FK Madona Kvarcs
0 : 5
Rezekne
22 May
Lielupe
2 : 3
FK Madona Kvarcs
03 Jul
FK Madona Kvarcs
1 : 3
Latgols / Ludza
16 Jun
FK Karosta
8 : 1
FK Madona Kvarcs
27 May
FK Karosta
9 : 1
FK Madona Kvarcs
Page 1 of 3

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/64-finals
FK Metta-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Jelgava-
Grobina-
TBD-
SK Cesis1
Albatroz4
FK Alberts-
TBD-
TBD-
DSVK Traktors-
Alberts JDFS-
TBD-
Lielupe2
Nikers5
Monarhs-
TBD-
TBD-
BFC Daugavpils-
Spartaks Jurmala-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Riga United-
TBD-
TBD-
FK Salacgriva-
Aliance-
TBD-
TBD-
Ghetto / Gvatar-
Super Nova-
TBD-
AFA Olaine1
SK Babite5
Balvu SC-
TBD-
TBD-
FK Smiltene-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Riga FC-
Ventspils-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
FK Auda Riga-
TBD-
TBD-
Plavinas-
Salaspils FK9
Valka0
KF Grobina0
BetLanes14
RTU-
TBD-
TBD-
Rezekne-
Kauguri-PBLC4
Bauskas / Memele0
TBD-
Tukums 2000-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
FK Liepaja-
Valmiera-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Bebri-
TBD-
Lubana2
Upesciems5
FK Karosta9
FK Madona Kvarcs1
TBD-
Preilu BJSS-
FK Limbazi-
TBD-
Fk Jurnieks Riga0
Priekuli3
Talsu NSS / FK Laidze-
TBD-
TBD-
Ogres Novada Sporta Centrs-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
RFS-
1/32-finals
FK Metta-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Jelgava-
Grobina7
Albatroz1
FK Alberts1
DSVK Traktors2
Alberts JDFS3
Nikers1
Monarhs2
BFC Daugavpils4
Spartaks Jurmala-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Riga United10
FK Salacgriva0
Aliance0
Ghetto / Gvatar5
Super Nova2
SK Babite1
Balvu SC1
FK Smiltene4
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Riga FC-
Ventspils-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
FK Auda Riga9
Plavinas1
Salaspils FK0
BetLanes7
RTU2
Rezekne0
Kauguri-PBLC3
Tukums 20004
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
FK Liepaja-
Valmiera-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Bebri3
Upesciems0
FK Karosta1
Preilu BJSS3
FK Limbazi6
Priekuli3
Talsu NSS / FK Laidze3
Ogres Novada Sporta Centrs5
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
RFS-
1/16-finals
FK Metta-
TBD-
TBD-
Jelgava-
Grobina7
DSVK Traktors0
Alberts JDFS0
BFC Daugavpils5
Spartaks Jurmala-
TBD-
Riga United1
Ghetto / Gvatar9
Super Nova2
FK Smiltene0
TBD-
Riga FC-
Ventspils-
TBD-
FK Auda Riga0
BetLanes2
RTU5
Tukums 20000
TBD-
FK Liepaja-
Valmiera-
TBD-
Bebri0
Preilu BJSS5
FK Limbazi1
Ogres Novada Sporta Centrs0
TBD-
RFS-
1/8-finals
FK Metta2
Jelgava1
Grobina2
BFC Daugavpils6
Spartaks Jurmala8
Ghetto / Gvatar1
Super Nova0
Riga FC2
Ventspils2
BetLanes1
RTU0
FK Liepaja5
Valmiera3
Preilu BJSS0
FK Limbazi0
RFS15
Quarter-finals
FK Metta4
BFC Daugavpils3
Spartaks Jurmala1
Riga FC3
Ventspils1
FK Liepaja0
Valmiera0
RFS3
Semi-finals
FK Metta1
Riga FC2
Ventspils2
RFS1
Final
Riga FC1
Ventspils0