Sport Picks
Match Events
5'
5'
Tsintsadze M.
22'
22'
Ivanovs N.
46'
46'
Sub
Kozlovs I. In: Recickis V.
Out: Kozlovs I.
AI Match Summary
Jelgava in this Latvian Cup 2019 tie, finishing 0-5. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
15%
46%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jelgava
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to FK Karosta lately — more wins on the board than Jelgava.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- FK Karosta have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Jelgava, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
FK Karosta Clean Sheet 17%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | FK Karosta | Jelgava |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 20 | 32 |
| Wins | 14 | 9 |
| Draws | 0 | 7 |
| Losses | 6 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 2.85 | 1.22 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.9 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.42 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 25, 2019 Latvian Cup
FK Karosta vs Jelgava
0:5
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
FK Karosta Compare
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71
Jelgava Compare
Top Goalscorer Tsintsadze M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ivanovs N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.79
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
FK Karosta 36 / 100
Jelgava 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
FK Karosta Jelgava
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Jelgava Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
FK Karosta's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 19 recent games.
These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.
Jelgava's defensive record shows goals conceded in 78% of 32 matches.
FK Karosta has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
- VS Jelgava
0 Goals Scored 1.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
FK Karosta
(Home) 27 Nov
Dinamo Riga
2 : 1 FK Karosta
20 Nov
FK Karosta
4 : 2 Dinamo Riga
17 Jul
Albatroz
5 : 1 FK Karosta
04 Jul
Plavinas
0 : 1 FK Karosta
06 Sept
Grobina
3 : 0 FK Karosta
Page 1 of 4
20 Nov
FK Karosta
4 : 2 Dinamo Riga
06 Aug
FK Karosta
4 : 0 Jurmalas
25 Sept
FK Karosta
0 : 5 Jelgava
17 Jul
FK Karosta
4 : 1 LDZ Cargo/DFA
16 Jun
FK Karosta
8 : 1 FK Madona Kvarcs
Page 1 of 2
Jelgava
(Away) 19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1 Riga FC
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0 Jelgava
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1 Super Nova
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4 Jelgava
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3 Jelgava
Page 1 of 7
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0 Jelgava
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4 Jelgava
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3 Jelgava
01 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 1 Jelgava
12 Jul
RFS
2 : 0 Jelgava
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
RFS -
TBD -
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TBD -
Valmiera -
FK Smiltene -
TBD -
TBD -
Ghetto / Gvatar -
Nikers -
TBD -
TBD -
Livani -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
Tukums 2000 -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Auda Riga -
Keiko Jekabpils -
TBD -
DSVK Traktors 1
Krimulda 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
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TBD -
Ventspils -
Super Nova -
TBD -
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Rezekne -
Kalupe 2
AFA Olaine 1
TBD -
New Project -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
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TBD -
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TBD -
Riga FC -
FK Karosta 3
Riga United 1
TBD -
FK Madona Kvarcs -
Lubana -
TBD -
TBD -
Tente -
FK Alberts -
TBD -
TBD -
Lielupe -
Aliance 1
Talsu NSS / FK Laidze 0
Monarhs 0
LDZ Cargo/DFA 7
Alberts JDFS -
TBD -
TBD -
Dinamo Riga -
Albatroz -
TBD -
TBD -
Grobina -
Salaspils FK 4
Fk Jurnieks Riga 1
Jurmalas 1
Jauniba / Upesciems 2
Marupe -
TBD -
FK Limbazi 2
Caramba 8
BFC Daugavpils -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
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Spartaks Jurmala -
FK Metta -
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Jelgava -
1/32-finals
RFS -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Valmiera -
FK Smiltene 3
Ghetto / Gvatar 0
Nikers 1
Livani 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
Tukums 2000 5
FK Auda Riga 1
Keiko Jekabpils 2
Krimulda 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ventspils -
Super Nova 4
Rezekne 3
Kalupe 0
New Project 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Riga FC -
FK Karosta 8
FK Madona Kvarcs 1
Lubana 2
Tente 6
FK Alberts 2
Lielupe 1
Aliance 1
LDZ Cargo/DFA 2
Alberts JDFS 3
Dinamo Riga 1
Albatroz 1
Grobina 2
Salaspils FK 3
Jauniba / Upesciems 0
Marupe 3
Caramba 5
BFC Daugavpils -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Spartaks Jurmala -
FK Metta -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Jelgava -
1/16-finals
RFS -
TBD -
TBD -
Valmiera -
FK Smiltene 7
Livani 0
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
Tukums 2000 9
Krimulda 1
TBD -
Ventspils -
Super Nova 2
New Project 1
TBD -
Riga FC -
FK Karosta 1
Tente 0
FK Alberts 0
LDZ Cargo/DFA 6
Alberts JDFS 4
Grobina 2
Salaspils FK 0
Caramba 1
BFC Daugavpils -
TBD -
TBD -
Spartaks Jurmala -
FK Metta -
TBD -
TBD -
Jelgava -
1/8-finals
RFS 2
Valmiera 1
FK Smiltene 0
FK Liepaja 4
Tukums 2000 4
Ventspils 1
Super Nova 0
Riga FC 6
FK Karosta 4
LDZ Cargo/DFA 1
Alberts JDFS 0
Caramba 1
BFC Daugavpils 1
Spartaks Jurmala 0
FK Metta 0
Jelgava 1
Quarter-finals
RFS 2
FK Liepaja 1
Tukums 2000 0
Riga FC 4
FK Karosta 2
Caramba 1
BFC Daugavpils 1
Jelgava 2
Semi-finals
RFS 3
Riga FC 1
FK Karosta 0
Jelgava 5
Final
RFS 3
Jelgava 2
