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FK Liepaja vs FK Auda Riga - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Daugavas stadions, Liepāja
Mon, Oct 12, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FK Liepaja host FK Auda Riga in the Virsliga. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. FK Auda Riga have shipped 1.12 goals a game lately, while FK Liepaja have conceded 1.42 and scored 1.32. Past meetings favor FK Auda Riga slightly — 1-4-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 25, 2026, ending 1:0. xG projections (1.25 - 1.38) back FK Auda Riga to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
FK Liepaja
35%
Draws
42%
FK Auda Riga
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: FK Auda Riga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and FK Auda Riga come out ahead of FK Liepaja on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors FK Auda Riga here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
FK Liepaja Clean Sheet 17%
FK Auda Riga Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Liepaja FK Auda Riga
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 12 20
Draws 7 7
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.32 1.7
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.12
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 25, 2026 Virsliga
FK Auda Riga vs FK Liepaja
1:0
Jul 11, 2026 Latvian Cup
FK Auda Riga vs FK Liepaja
1:0
May 22, 2026 Virsliga
FK Auda Riga vs FK Liepaja
3:1
Apr 8, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs FK Auda Riga
1:2
Oct 20, 2025 Virsliga
FK Auda Riga vs FK Liepaja
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Liepaja 36 / 100
FK Auda Riga 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Liepaja FK Auda Riga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Auda Riga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Liepaja found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (31 games).

FK Auda Riga has conceded goals in 61% of their last 33 outings.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Recent resilience: FK Liepaja stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FK Liepaja VS FK Auda Riga
1.38 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Liepaja

(Home)
19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
07 Sept
RFS
0 : 0
FK Liepaja
31 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 2
Riga FC
25 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
FK Liepaja
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FK Auda Riga

(Away)
20 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
RFS
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Riga FC
2 : 2
FK Auda Riga
06 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Grobina
02 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 3
FK Auda Riga
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)