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FK Liepaja vs Ogre United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Daugavas stadions, Liepāja
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Match Events

8' Event
Fellipe Vieira
Assist: Oloko E.
28' Event
Haidara A.
Assist: Amatkarijo C.
33'
Mickevics T.

AI Match Summary

The Virsliga game between FK Liepaja and Ogre United finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FK Liepaja.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
FK Liepaja
35%
Draws
26%
Ogre United
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: FK Liepaja

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Ogre United haven't matched FK Liepaja's recent run of results.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on FK Liepaja taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors FK Liepaja here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
FK Liepaja Clean Sheet 68%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Liepaja Ogre United
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 5
Draws 5 5
Losses 12 19
Goals Scored 1.31 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.41 2.59
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs FK Liepaja
2:2
Jun 30, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Ogre United
4:0
May 12, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Ogre United
4:1
Mar 20, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs FK Liepaja
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FK Liepaja Compare

Top Goalscorer Fellipe Vieira
2 Goals
Assists Leader Haidara A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Ogre United Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Liepaja 68 / 100
Ogre United 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Liepaja Ogre United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Liepaja Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ogre United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

FK Liepaja scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Recent resilience: FK Liepaja stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FK Liepaja VS Ogre United
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Liepaja

(Home)
19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
07 Sept
RFS
0 : 0
FK Liepaja
31 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 2
Riga FC
25 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
FK Liepaja
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Ogre United

(Away)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)