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FK Liepaja vs Tukums 2000 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Daugavas stadions, Liepāja
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FK Liepaja host Tukums 2000 in the Virsliga. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Recent numbers: FK Liepaja at 1.32 goals for, 1.42 against; Tukums 2000 at 1.45 for, 2 against. Head-to-head, FK Liepaja have won 3 to Tukums 2000's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 2, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.63 vs 1.13, favoring FK Liepaja. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
FK Liepaja
35%
Draws
26%
Tukums 2000
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: FK Liepaja

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • FK Liepaja have won more games recently than Tukums 2000.
  • FK Liepaja are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
FK Liepaja Clean Sheet 20%
Tukums 2000 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Liepaja Tukums 2000
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 12 5
Draws 7 8
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.32 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.42 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs FK Liepaja
2:1
May 30, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Tukums 2000
3:0
Apr 17, 2026 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs FK Liepaja
2:2
Sep 14, 2025 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Tukums 2000
4:1
Jun 25, 2025 Virsliga
Tukums 2000 vs FK Liepaja
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Liepaja 76 / 100
Tukums 2000 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Liepaja Tukums 2000

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Liepaja Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tukums 2000 let in goals in 97% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

FK Liepaja scored in 68% of their last 31 games.

FK Liepaja went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FK Liepaja VS Tukums 2000
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Liepaja

(Home)
19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
07 Sept
RFS
0 : 0
FK Liepaja
31 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 2
Riga FC
25 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
FK Liepaja
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Tukums 2000

(Away)
20 Sept
Tukums 2000
1 : 1
Grobina
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
21 Aug
FK Auda Riga
3 : 0
Tukums 2000
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)