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FK Tosno vs Tomsk - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Russian Cup 2017/2018 Elektron, Veliky Novgorod
FK Tosno Logo

FK Tosno

Wed, Oct 25, 2017
1 - 0
04:00 PM
Tomsk Logo

Tomsk

Our Tip

Match Events

41'
Dugalic R.
43'
Zuykov S.
55'
Makurin A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with FK Tosno advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
FK Tosno
15%
Draws
46%
Tomsk
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tomsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Tomsk carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on FK Tosno taking it.
  • Tomsk arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor FK Tosno, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
FK Tosno Clean Sheet 68%
Tomsk Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Tosno Tomsk
Matches Played 27 31
Wins 10 11
Draws 2 10
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 1.07 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.81 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 25, 2017 Russian Cup
FK Tosno vs Tomsk
1:0
Nov 29, 2015 FNL
FK Tosno vs Tomsk
3:1
Aug 10, 2015 FNL
Tomsk vs FK Tosno
3:2
Mar 29, 2015 FNL
FK Tosno vs Tomsk
0:1
Sep 7, 2014 FNL
Tomsk vs FK Tosno
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Tosno 46 / 100
Tomsk 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Tosno Tomsk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Tomsk conceded in 65% of 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

FK Tosno scored in 59% of their last 27 games.

FK Tosno went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FK Tosno VS Tomsk
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Tosno

(Home)
12 Aug
FK Tosno
0 : 1
Cherepovets
29 Jul
Kirovets-Voskhozhdenie
0 : 3
FK Tosno
13 May
Ufa
5 : 0
FK Tosno
09 May
FK Tosno
2 : 1
Kursk
05 May
FK Tosno
1 : 2
Dynamo Moscow
Page 1 of 6

Tomsk

(Away)
21 May
Tomsk
2 : 2
M. Lipetsk
15 May
FC Volgar-Astrakhan
0 : 3
Tomsk
07 May
SKA Khabarovsk
2 : 0
Tomsk
30 Apr
Olimp-Dolgoprudny
1 : 0
Tomsk
23 Apr
Tomsk
1 : 0
Tekstilshtik
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Dynamo Petersburg (inactive) 2
FC Chertanovo Moscow 0
TBD -
Zenit St Petersburg -
Ararat Moscow 2
Baltika 1
TBD -
SKA Khabarovsk -
Pari Nizhny Novgorod 1
Vladimir 0
TBD -
Ufa -
Ural -
TBD -
Khimki 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2
Kursk 1
D. Bryansk 0
TBD -
CSKA Moscow -
Arsenal Tula -
TBD -
FC Energomash Belgorod 0
FC Tambov 1
FK Rostov -
TBD -
R. Volgograd 0
FC Volgar-Astrakhan 2
Fakel Voronezh 1
Znamya Truda 0
TBD -
Amkar -
Spartak Moscow -
TBD -
Armavir 0
Kuban Krasnodar 1
Dynamo Moscow -
TBD -
Chernomorets Novorossijsk 1
Spartak Nalchik 2
Krylya Sovetov Samara 2
Syzran 0
TBD -
Lokomotiv Moscow -
Orenburg 3
Saratov 1
TBD -
Rubin Kazan -
Tomsk 4
Irtysh Omsk 0
TBD -
Krasnodar -
Tyumen 2
Sibir Novosibirsk 1
TBD -
FK Tosno -
Yenisey 2
Chita 1
TBD -
Akhmat Grozny -
Anzhi -
TBD -
Smena Komsomolsk 0
Luch Vladivostok 1
1/16-finals
Dynamo Petersburg (inactive) 3
Zenit St Petersburg 2
Ararat Moscow 1
SKA Khabarovsk 2
Pari Nizhny Novgorod 2
Ufa 1
Ural 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3
Kursk 1
CSKA Moscow 0
Arsenal Tula 0
FC Tambov 1
FK Rostov 2
FC Volgar-Astrakhan 0
Fakel Voronezh 0
Amkar 4
Spartak Moscow 2
Kuban Krasnodar 0
Dynamo Moscow 0
Spartak Nalchik 1
Krylya Sovetov Samara 3
Lokomotiv Moscow 2
Orenburg 0
Rubin Kazan 2
Tomsk 2
Krasnodar 1
Tyumen 1
FK Tosno 2
Yenisey 3
Akhmat Grozny 0
Anzhi 0
Luch Vladivostok 2
1/8-finals
Dynamo Petersburg (inactive) 0
SKA Khabarovsk 2
Pari Nizhny Novgorod 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl 4
Kursk 2
FC Tambov 0
FK Rostov 1
Amkar 2
Spartak Moscow 5
Spartak Nalchik 2
Krylya Sovetov Samara 2
Rubin Kazan 1
Tomsk 0
FK Tosno 1
Yenisey 1
Luch Vladivostok 2
Quarter-finals
SKA Khabarovsk 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1
Kursk 1
Amkar 0
Spartak Moscow 3
Krylya Sovetov Samara 1
FK Tosno 2
Luch Vladivostok 1
Semi-finals
Shinnik Yaroslavl 0
Kursk 1
Spartak Moscow 1
FK Tosno 2
Final
Kursk 1
FK Tosno 2