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Flamengo SP vs Matonense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Flamengo SP Logo

Flamengo SP

3 - 1
FT
Matonense Logo

Matonense

Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Lucas Pastor
45' Event
Gustavo
57' Event
Enzo Cavacante
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. This leg finished 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Flamengo SP
15%
Draws
31%
Matonense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Flamengo SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Flamengo SP lately — more wins on the board than Matonense.
  • Model gives Matonense a 31% chance of winning this.
  • Flamengo SP have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Flamengo SP, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Flamengo SP Clean Sheet 14%
Matonense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Flamengo SP Matonense
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 15 8
Draws 9 3
Losses 7 19
Goals Scored 1.19 1.43
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Paulista B
Flamengo SP vs Matonense
3:1
Jul 11, 2026 Paulista B
Matonense vs Flamengo SP
0:1
Aug 3, 2019 Paulista A4
Matonense vs Flamengo SP
0:5
Jul 14, 2019 Paulista A4
Flamengo SP vs Matonense
1:1
Mar 22, 2017 Paulista A3
Matonense vs Flamengo SP
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Flamengo SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Enzo Cavacante
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Matonense Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Pastor
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Flamengo SP 11 / 100
Matonense 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Flamengo SP Matonense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Matonense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Matonense let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Flamengo SP's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Flamengo SP went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Flamengo SP VS Matonense
1.13 Goals Scored 2.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
38% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Flamengo SP

(Home)
02 Aug
Independente SP
2 : 0
Flamengo SP
25 Jul
Flamengo SP
1 : 0
Independente SP
18 Jul
Flamengo SP
3 : 1
Matonense
11 Jul
Matonense
0 : 1
Flamengo SP
04 Jul
Flamengo SP
2 : 1
Audax-SP
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Matonense

(Away)
18 Jul
Flamengo SP
3 : 1
Matonense
11 Jul
Matonense
0 : 1
Flamengo SP
04 Jul
Matonense
0 : 0
Assisense
27 Jun
Assisense
0 : 1
Matonense
20 Jun
Matonense
2 : 1
Mogi Mirim
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Independente SP 4
Tupa 0
Paulinense 3
Sao Carlos 0
Flamengo SP 2
Audax-SP 1
Matonense 1
Assisense 0
Itaqua 6
Paulinia FU 1
Maua FC 3
Uniao Mogi 5
Jose Bonifacio EC 4
Manthiqueira 1
America SP 3
Santacruzense 0
Quarter-finals
Independente SP 3
Paulinense 1
Flamengo SP 4
Matonense 1
Itaqua 5
Uniao Mogi 1
Jose Bonifacio EC 2
America SP 4
Semi-finals
Independente SP 2
Flamengo SP 1
Itaqua 1
America SP 4
Final
Independente SP 4
America SP 3