Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Flora vs Nomme Utd

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Kivila K.
13'
Sub
Valdmets R. In: Grunvald E.
Out: Valdmets R.
17'
Alamaa S.

AI Match Summary

Nomme Utd in this Meistriliiga matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nomme Utd.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Flora
15%
Draws
27%
Nomme Utd
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Flora

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Flora have won more games recently than Nomme Utd.
  • Flora are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Flora here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%
Flora Clean Sheet 68%
Nomme Utd Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Flora Nomme Utd
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 20 11
Draws 3 1
Losses 11 18
Goals Scored 2 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.44 2.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Meistriliiga
Nomme Utd vs Flora
2:3
Jul 17, 2026 Meistriliiga
Flora vs Nomme Utd
1:2
May 29, 2026 Meistriliiga
Nomme Utd vs Flora
0:4
Mar 10, 2026 Estonian Cup
Flora vs Nomme Utd
3:1
Mar 7, 2026 Meistriliiga
Flora vs Nomme Utd
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Flora Compare

Top Goalscorer Varjund T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Nomme Utd Compare

Top Goalscorer Morishige Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Flora 86 / 100
Nomme Utd 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Flora Nomme Utd

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Flora Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 8:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Flora found the back of the net in 91% of recent matches (34 games).

Defensive concern: Nomme Utd conceded in 93% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Flora has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Flora VS Nomme Utd
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
2.25 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Flora

(Home)
20 Sept
Flora
3 : 2
Parnu JK Vaprus
12 Sept
Nomme Utd
2 : 3
Flora
08 Sept
Narva
2 : 2
Flora
05 Sept
Flora
2 : 1
Kalju
02 Sept
Flora
3 : 2
Tammeka Tartu
Page 1 of 7

Nomme Utd

(Away)
19 Sept
Nomme Utd
1 : 3
Paide Linnameeskond
12 Sept
Nomme Utd
2 : 3
Flora
08 Sept
Kalju
1 : 2
Nomme Utd
05 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
1 : 0
Nomme Utd
02 Sept
Nomme Utd
3 : 2
Parnu JK Vaprus
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levadia 29 22 6 1 81:21 72
2 Flora 29 18 1 10 59:39 55
3 Paide Linnameeskond 29 15 6 8 48:36 51
4 Kalju 29 15 5 9 52:27 50
5 Tammeka Tartu 29 14 2 13 37:47 44
6 Harju JK Laagri 29 11 2 16 40:47 35
7 Parnu JK Vaprus 29 10 4 15 39:57 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 31:49 29
9 Nomme Utd 29 9 1 19 47:68 28
10 Narva 29 5 4 20 22:65 19
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)