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Florgrade vs FC Alpendorada - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026
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Match Events

17' Event
Costa G.
(Penalty)
63'
Jogo T.
68' Event
Fontes B.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Florgrade
15%
Draws
28%
FC Alpendorada
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Florgrade

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Florgrade lately — more wins on the board than FC Alpendorada.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Florgrade taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Florgrade Clean Sheet 68%
FC Alpendorada Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Florgrade FC Alpendorada
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 12
Draws 10 9
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.17 1.4
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Florgrade vs FC Alpendorada
2:2
Sep 28, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
FC Alpendorada vs Florgrade
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Florgrade Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramalho G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

FC Alpendorada Compare

Top Goalscorer Fontes B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nilo Souza
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Florgrade 68 / 100
FC Alpendorada 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Florgrade FC Alpendorada

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Florgrade Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Florgrade scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

FC Alpendorada has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Florgrade went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Florgrade VS FC Alpendorada
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Florgrade

(Home)
27 Sept
Camacha
0 : 1
Florgrade
13 Sept
Florgrade
2 : 0
Sanjoanense
06 Sept
Camacha
1 : 0
Florgrade
30 Aug
Florgrade
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
23 Aug
Florgrade
1 : 0
Guarda FC
Page 1 of 6

FC Alpendorada

(Away)
20 Sept
FC Alpendorada
3 : 0
Macao
13 Sept
FC Alpendorada
1 : 2
Machico
06 Sept
Sanjoanense
3 : 1
FC Alpendorada
30 Aug
Rebordosa
2 : 3
FC Alpendorada
23 Aug
FC Alpendorada
1 : 2
Camacha
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rebordosa 26 17 7 2 41:17 58
2 Leca 26 14 9 3 50:23 51
3 Cinfaes 26 10 10 6 33:21 40
4 Beira Mar 26 10 8 8 30:22 38
5 FC Alpendorada 26 9 11 6 30:22 38
6 Florgrade 26 9 10 7 28:28 37
7 Vila Mea 26 7 13 6 29:28 34
8 Uniao Lamas 26 9 6 11 27:33 33
9 SC Salgueiros 26 7 11 8 20:19 32
10 Anadia 26 7 9 10 27:33 30
11 Aparecida 26 9 4 13 36:51 28
12 GD Resende 26 6 10 10 27:31 28
13 SC Vila Real 26 5 12 9 23:30 27
14 CD Gouveia 26 1 4 21 14:57 7
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)