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Fluminense vs Bangu

Brazil Brazil

Carioca Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Savarino J.
Assist: Guga
40' Event
Canobbio A.
Assist: Bernal F.
42'
Patryck

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. The second leg ended 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Fluminense
30%
Draws
29%
Bangu
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fluminense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fluminense come out ahead of Bangu on wins alone.
  • Model gives Fluminense a 41% chance of winning this.
  • Fluminense have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Fluminense, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Fluminense have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Fluminense Clean Sheet 68%
Bangu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fluminense Bangu
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 13 12
Draws 11 9
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.45 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 16, 2026 Carioca
Fluminense vs Bangu
3:1
Feb 23, 2025 Carioca
Fluminense vs Bangu
3:2
Feb 2, 2024 Carioca
Fluminense vs Bangu
4:1
Mar 4, 2023 Carioca
Bangu vs Fluminense
0:5
Jan 27, 2022 Carioca
Fluminense vs Bangu
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fluminense Compare

Top Goalscorer Savarino J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Canobbio A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Bangu Compare

Top Goalscorer Ricardo Sena
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fluminense 77 / 100
Bangu 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fluminense Bangu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fluminense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Fluminense found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Bangu conceded in 61% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Fluminense stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fluminense VS Bangu
1.5 Goals Scored 0.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fluminense

(Home)
15 Sept
Platense
2 : 1
Fluminense
12 Sept
Atletico-MG
3 : 1
Fluminense
08 Sept
Fluminense
2 : 0
Platense
06 Sept
Fluminense
1 : 0
Vasco
30 Aug
Athletico-PR
3 : 3
Fluminense
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Bangu

(Away)
22 Jul
Bangu
1 : 1
Olaria
15 Jul
Olaria
2 : 0
Bangu
07 Mar
Botafogo RJ
3 : 1
Bangu
27 Feb
Volta Redonda
1 : 1
Bangu
20 Feb
Bangu
1 : 0
Volta Redonda
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Fluminense 3
Bangu 1
Vasco 2
Volta Redonda 1
Botafogo RJ 1
Flamengo RJ 2
Madureira 2
Boavista 1
Semi-finals
Fluminense 2
Vasco 1
Flamengo RJ 11
Madureira 0
Final
Fluminense 0
Flamengo RJ 1