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Club Friendly Maracanã

Nova Iguacu

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Fluminense play Nova Iguacu in the Club Friendly. It looks like a close match. Recently, Fluminense averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Nova Iguacu averaged 1.11 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Fluminense won 5, Nova Iguacu won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 23, 2026 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Fluminense and 1.00 for Nova Iguacu. This points to a Fluminense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%

Fluminense

22%

Draws

30%

Nova Iguacu

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Fluminense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence

Fluminense picked up more points recently compared to Nova Iguacu.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 68%

Over 2.5 Goals 44%

Over 3.5 Goals 26%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%

Fluminense Clean Sheet 23%

Nova Iguacu Clean Sheet 17%

First Half Goal 61%

Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Fluminense	Nova Iguacu
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	14	8
Draws	7	10
Losses	8	10
Goals Scored	1.45	1.11
Goals Conceded	1.17	1.07
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 23, 2026 Carioca

Nova Iguacu vs Fluminense

Possession: 43% - 44% Cards: 1 - 2

2:3

Feb 16, 2025 Carioca

Fluminense vs Nova Iguacu

Possession: 45% - 44% Cards: 0 - 2

2:0

Jan 28, 2024 Carioca

Fluminense vs Nova Iguacu

Possession: 43% - 44% Cards: 0 - 2

3:0

Jan 18, 2023 Carioca

Fluminense vs Nova Iguacu

Possession: 49% - 50% Cards: 4 - 2

1:0

Feb 17, 2022 Carioca

Nova Iguacu vs Fluminense

Possession: 54% - 50% Cards: 3 - 4

0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fluminense 48 / 100

Nova Iguacu 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Fluminense Nova Iguacu

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Fluminense or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +20%

2.50

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.7%

2.63

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Fluminense attacking → ← attacking Nova Iguacu

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fluminense scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Nova Iguacu let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Fluminense went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Nova Iguacu lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 34

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.63

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.38