Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Fluminense vs Palmeiras - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

South America South America

Copa Libertadores
Thu, Oct 15, 2026
VS
12:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Copa Libertadores. This one's hard to separate. Fluminense have averaged 1.59 scored and 1.15 conceded recently, against Palmeiras's 1.78 scored and 0.78 conceded. Past meetings favor Fluminense slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 15, 2026, ending 3:2. xG projections (1.00 - 1.44) back Fluminense to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: NG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Fluminense
30%
Draws
35%
Palmeiras
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Palmeiras lately — more wins on the board than Fluminense.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Palmeiras arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Palmeiras, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Fluminense Clean Sheet 16%
Palmeiras Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fluminense Palmeiras
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 12 13
Draws 10 10
Losses 5 4
Goals Scored 1.59 1.78
Goals Conceded 1.15 0.78
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Serie A Betano
Fluminense vs Palmeiras
3:2
Feb 26, 2026 Serie A Betano
Palmeiras vs Fluminense
2:1
Nov 23, 2025 Serie A Betano
Palmeiras vs Fluminense
0:0
Jul 23, 2025 Serie A Betano
Fluminense vs Palmeiras
1:2
Dec 8, 2024 Serie A Betano
Palmeiras vs Fluminense
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fluminense 36 / 100
Palmeiras 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fluminense Palmeiras

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Palmeiras Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Fluminense scored in 81% of their last 27 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Fluminense stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Palmeiras let in goals in 52% of their last 27 matches.

Scoring Trends

Fluminense VS Palmeiras
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Fluminense

(Home)
20 Sept
Corinthians
1 : 3
Fluminense
15 Sept
Platense
2 : 1
Fluminense
12 Sept
Atletico-MG
3 : 1
Fluminense
08 Sept
Fluminense
2 : 0
Platense
06 Sept
Fluminense
1 : 0
Vasco
Page 1 of 6

Palmeiras

(Away)
20 Sept
Gremio
0 : 0
Palmeiras
16 Sept
LDU Quito
3 : 3
Palmeiras
12 Sept
Palmeiras
2 : 0
Sao Paulo
09 Sept
Palmeiras
1 : 0
LDU Quito
06 Sept
Botafogo RJ
0 : 0
Palmeiras
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Estudiantes L.P. 4
U. Catolica 1
Rosario Central 0
Corinthians 1
Deportes Tolima 1
Independiente del Valle 4
Cruzeiro 2
Flamengo RJ 3
Mirassol 1
LDU Quito 2
Palmeiras 2
Cerro Porteno 1
Platense 2
Coquimbo 1
Fluminense 2
Ind. Rivadavia 1
Quarter-finals
Estudiantes L.P. 2
Corinthians 1
Independiente del Valle 1
Flamengo RJ 3
LDU Quito 3
Palmeiras 4
Platense 2
Fluminense 3
Semi-finals
Estudiantes L.P. -
Flamengo RJ -
Palmeiras -
Fluminense -
Final
TBD -
TBD -