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Fluminense vs Sao Paulo

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Maracanã
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
John Kennedy
Assist: Guilherme Arana
30'
Andre Silva
44' Event
Canobbio A.
Assist: Acosta L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie A Betano game between Fluminense and Sao Paulo finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fluminense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Fluminense
6%
Draws
4%
Sao Paulo
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Fluminense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Fluminense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Fluminense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Fluminense Clean Sheet 68%
Sao Paulo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fluminense Sao Paulo
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 14 13
Draws 8 6
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 2.25 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Serie A Betano
Fluminense vs Sao Paulo
2:1
Nov 27, 2025 Serie A Betano
Fluminense vs Sao Paulo
6:0
Jul 27, 2025 Serie A Betano
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense
3:1
Sep 1, 2024 Serie A Betano
Fluminense vs Sao Paulo
2:0
May 13, 2024 Serie A Betano
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fluminense Compare

Top Goalscorer John Kennedy
1 Goals
Assists Leader Canobbio A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Sao Paulo Compare

Top Goalscorer Doria
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fluminense 95 / 100
Sao Paulo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fluminense Sao Paulo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FLU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fluminense scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Fluminense has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Sao Paulo has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Fluminense VS Sao Paulo
2.25 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Palmeiras18125130:1341
2Flamengo RJ17104331:1634
3Fluminense1995529:2432
4Bragantino1993726:2030
5Athletico-PR1893624:1830
6Bahia1885527:2329
7Coritiba1875624:2426
8Sao Paulo1874723:2025
9Botafogo RJ1874733:3225
10Vitoria1874722:2525
11Atletico-MG1873822:2324
12Corinthians1866618:1924
13Cruzeiro1866624:2824
14Internacional1856721:2221
15Santos1956827:3121
16Gremio1956821:2521
17Vasco1955922:3020
18Mirassol1854920:2519
19Remo1846821:2918
20Chapecoense-SC18161117:359