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Fluminense vs Vasco - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Carioca Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Rene
Penalty Missed
24'
Robert Renan
35' Event
Robert Renan

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. This leg finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Fluminense
15%
Draws
50%
Vasco
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vasco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Vasco lately — more wins on the board than Fluminense.
  • Model gives Vasco a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Vasco arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Vasco, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Fluminense Clean Sheet 19%
Vasco Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fluminense Vasco
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 12 13
Draws 10 8
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 1.59 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.15 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie A Betano
Fluminense vs Vasco
1:0
Aug 6, 2026 Copa Betano do Brasil
Fluminense vs Vasco
1:3
Aug 1, 2026 Copa Betano do Brasil
Vasco vs Fluminense
0:0
Mar 19, 2026 Serie A Betano
Vasco vs Fluminense
3:2
Mar 1, 2026 Carioca
Fluminense vs Vasco
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fluminense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Vasco Compare

Top Goalscorer Robert Renan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fluminense 10 / 100
Vasco 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fluminense Vasco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vasco Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fluminense scored in 81% of their last 27 games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Fluminense has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Vasco's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Fluminense VS Vasco
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Fluminense

(Home)
20 Sept
Corinthians
1 : 3
Fluminense
15 Sept
Platense
2 : 1
Fluminense
12 Sept
Atletico-MG
3 : 1
Fluminense
08 Sept
Fluminense
2 : 0
Platense
06 Sept
Fluminense
1 : 0
Vasco
Page 1 of 6

Vasco

(Away)
07 Oct
Botafogo RJ
1 : 2
Vasco
19 Sept
Vasco
5 : 0
Coritiba
15 Sept
Vasco
2 : 0
Santa Fe
12 Sept
Gremio
1 : 2
Vasco
08 Sept
Santa Fe
0 : 0
Vasco
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Fluminense 3
Bangu 1
Vasco 2
Volta Redonda 1
Botafogo RJ 1
Flamengo RJ 2
Madureira 2
Boavista 1
Semi-finals
Fluminense 2
Vasco 1
Flamengo RJ 11
Madureira 0
Final
Fluminense 0
Flamengo RJ 1