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Fluminense vs Vasco

Brazil Brazil

Carioca Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Rene
Penalty Missed
24'
Robert Renan
35' Event
Robert Renan

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. This leg finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Fluminense
35%
Draws
45%
Vasco
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Vasco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Fluminense at 1.45 per game, Vasco at 1.32.
  • Model gives Vasco a 45% chance of winning this.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Vasco, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Fluminense Clean Sheet 25%
Vasco Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fluminense Vasco
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 11
Draws 11 9
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.45 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 6, 2026 Copa Betano do Brasil
Fluminense vs Vasco
1:3
Aug 1, 2026 Copa Betano do Brasil
Vasco vs Fluminense
0:0
Mar 19, 2026 Serie A Betano
Vasco vs Fluminense
3:2
Mar 1, 2026 Carioca
Fluminense vs Vasco
1:1
Feb 22, 2026 Carioca
Vasco vs Fluminense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fluminense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Vasco Compare

Top Goalscorer Robert Renan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fluminense 29 / 100
Vasco 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fluminense Vasco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fluminense scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Vasco conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Fluminense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fluminense VS Vasco
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Fluminense

(Home)
09 Aug
Botafogo RJ
1 : 1
Fluminense
06 Aug
Fluminense
1 : 3
Vasco
01 Aug
Vasco
0 : 0
Fluminense
30 Jul
Fluminense
0 : 0
Bahia
26 Jul
Gremio
1 : 1
Fluminense
Page 1 of 6

Vasco

(Away)
09 Aug
Bahia
0 : 0
Vasco
06 Aug
Fluminense
1 : 3
Vasco
01 Aug
Vasco
0 : 0
Fluminense
29 Jul
Vasco
1 : 0
Ind. Medellin
25 Jul
Vasco
1 : 1
Mirassol
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Fluminense 3
Bangu 1
Vasco 2
Volta Redonda 1
Botafogo RJ 1
Flamengo RJ 2
Madureira 2
Boavista 1
Semi-finals
Fluminense 2
Vasco 1
Flamengo RJ 11
Madureira 0
Final
Fluminense 0
Flamengo RJ 1