Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group B 2014/2015

Castellana

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Folgore Caratese play Castellana in the Serie D - Group B 2014/2015. It looks like a close match. Recently, Folgore Caratese averaged 1.68 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. Castellana averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. In past meetings, Folgore Caratese won 1, Castellana won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 25, 2015 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.67 for Folgore Caratese and 0.69 for Castellana. This points to a Folgore Caratese double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%

Folgore Caratese

29%

Draws

22%

Castellana

Draw rate projection: 29% Favored: Folgore Caratese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence

Folgore Caratese picked up more points recently compared to Castellana.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.67 vs 0.69 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 46%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%

Folgore Caratese Clean Sheet 28%

Castellana Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Folgore Caratese	Castellana
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	15	7
Draws	11	7
Losses	5	16
Goals Scored	1.68	0.97
Goals Conceded	0.87	1.6

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2015 Serie D - Group B

Castellana vs Folgore Caratese

Possession: 41% - 51% Cards: 1 - 3

0:0

Sep 21, 2014 Serie D - Group B

Folgore Caratese vs Castellana

Possession: 55% - 57% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Folgore Caratese 50 / 100

Castellana 22 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Folgore Caratese Castellana

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Folgore Caratese or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +19.6%

2.44

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15%

2.50

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Folgore Caratese attacking → ← attacking Castellana

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Folgore Caratese scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Castellana let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Folgore Caratese went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Castellana lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

56 Points in last 5 28

2.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Castiglione	36	22	8	6	54:26	74
2	Lecco	36	19	9	8	65:42	66
3	Seregno Calcio	36	20	5	11	64:37	65
4	Ciserano	36	17	9	10	53:39	60
5	Virtus Verona	36	15	14	7	58:34	59
6	Pergolettese	36	15	10	11	46:44	55
7	Olginatese	36	15	9	12	44:34	54
8	Ponte San Pietro	36	14	10	12	50:42	52
9	Ciliverghe Mazzano	36	14	9	13	37:40	51
10	Sondrio	36	15	6	15	46:50	51
11	Aurora Seriate	36	14	8	14	42:43	50
12	Inveruno	36	13	10	13	47:48	49
13	Villafranca	36	12	11	13	44:49	47
14	MapelloBonate	36	12	11	13	36:48	47
15	Pro Sesto	36	13	8	15	38:41	47
16	Caravaggio	36	11	8	17	37:42	41
17	Folgore Caratese	36	7	16	13	34:40	37
18	Castellana	36	7	9	20	36:61	30
19	Montichiari	36	1	2	33	26:97	5