Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Folgore vs SP Domagnano

San Marino San Marino

Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Bonetti M.
(Penalty)
45' Event
Guglielmi F.
Assist: Bonetti M.
76' Event
Bonetti M.
Assist: Santi S.

AI Match Summary

SP Domagnano in this Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Folgore
15%
Draws
32%
SP Domagnano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Folgore

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Folgore have won more games recently than SP Domagnano.
  • Model gives Folgore a 53% chance of winning this.
  • Folgore have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor SP Domagnano, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Folgore Clean Sheet 18%
SP Domagnano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Folgore SP Domagnano
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 13
Draws 9 4
Losses 4 13
Goals Scored 2.2 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
Folgore vs SP Domagnano
1:3
May 2, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
SP Domagnano vs Folgore
0:1
Apr 25, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
SP Domagnano vs Folgore
3:7
Feb 11, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
Folgore vs SP Domagnano
2:1
Apr 26, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
Folgore vs SP Domagnano
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Folgore Compare

Top Goalscorer Garcia Rufer A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

SP Domagnano Compare

Top Goalscorer Guglielmi F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bonetti M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Folgore 85 / 100
SP Domagnano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Folgore SP Domagnano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Folgore Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Folgore found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (30 games).

SP Domagnano has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Solid form: Folgore remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Folgore VS SP Domagnano
2.75 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Folgore

(Home)
19 Sept
Folgore
2 : 0
San Marino Academy U22
13 Sept
Juvenes/Dogana
1 : 2
Folgore
09 Sept
AC Libertas
0 : 2
Folgore
05 Sept
Folgore
1 : 0
Cailungo
28 Aug
Folgore
5 : 0
SS Murata
Page 1 of 6

SP Domagnano

(Away)
19 Sept
SP Domagnano
1 : 2
La Fiorita
11 Sept
Tre Fiori
3 : 0
SP Domagnano
08 Sept
SP Domagnano
3 : 1
SC Faetano
04 Sept
SP Domagnano
4 : 0
San Giovanni
28 Aug
Cailungo
1 : 2
SP Domagnano
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Virtus -
TBD -
Juvenes/Dogana 1
AC Libertas 1
Folgore -
TBD -
TBD -
SP Domagnano -
Tre Penne -
TBD -
SP Cosmos 3
SS Pennarossa 0
La Fiorita -
TBD -
TBD -
Fiorentino -
Quarter-finals
Virtus 2
Juvenes/Dogana 0
Folgore 2
SP Domagnano 3
Tre Penne 0
SP Cosmos 0
La Fiorita 3
Fiorentino 3
Semi-finals
Virtus 3
SP Domagnano 3
Tre Penne 1
La Fiorita 2
Final
Virtus 2
La Fiorita 1
SP Domagnano 1
Tre Penne 3