Sport Picks
Foligno vs Follonica Gavorrano
Italy
Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 
Match Events
88'
88'
Marchetti E.
90'
90'
Tomassini S.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 game between Foligno and Follonica Gavorrano finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Foligno.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
30%
37%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Follonica Gavorrano
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Foligno have managed 1.1 goals a game lately — Follonica Gavorrano are scoring more at 1.31.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- Regular Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Foligno Clean Sheet 17%
Follonica Gavorrano Clean Sheet 17%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Foligno | Follonica Gavorrano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 11 |
| Draws | 8 | 10 |
| Losses | 10 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.1 | 1.31 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 15, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Foligno vs Follonica Gavorrano
2:0
Nov 2, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs Foligno
0:2
Feb 20, 2022 Serie D - Group E
Foligno vs Follonica Gavorrano
1:3
Oct 10, 2021 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs Foligno
3:0
Apr 11, 2021 Serie D - Group E
Foligno vs Follonica Gavorrano
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Foligno Compare
Top Goalscorer Marchetti E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Tomassini S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
Follonica Gavorrano Compare
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Foligno 31 / 100
Follonica Gavorrano 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Foligno Follonica Gavorrano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Follonica Gavorrano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Foligno found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).
Follonica Gavorrano let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Foligno went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Foligno VS Follonica Gavorrano
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Foligno
(Home) 04 Oct
Foligno
1 : 0 Angelana
27 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
1 : 1 Foligno
20 Sept
Foligno
1 : 0 Notaresco Calcio
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1 Foligno
12 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 1 Foligno
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Foligno
1 : 0 Angelana
20 Sept
Foligno
1 : 0 Notaresco Calcio
06 Sept
Foligno
2 : 1 Lanciano FC
03 May
Foligno
1 : 0 Cannara
12 Apr
Foligno
0 : 2 Prato
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Follonica Gavorrano
(Away) 04 Oct
Flaminia
1 : 1 Follonica Gavorrano
27 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 1 Sasso Marconi
20 Sept
San Donato Tavarnelle
0 : 2 Follonica Gavorrano
16 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
1 : 0 Ghiviborgo
12 Sept
Ternana
1 : 1 Follonica Gavorrano
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Flaminia
1 : 1 Follonica Gavorrano
20 Sept
San Donato Tavarnelle
0 : 2 Follonica Gavorrano
12 Sept
Ternana
1 : 1 Follonica Gavorrano
26 Apr
Scandicci
1 : 3 Follonica Gavorrano
12 Apr
Sporting Trestina
1 : 1 Follonica Gavorrano
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosseto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 58:25 | 72 |
| 2 | Tau | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 53:33 | 63 |
| 3 | Prato | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 49:29 | 63 |
| 4 | Siena | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 57:35 | 60 |
| 5 | Seravezza Pozzi | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 42:29 | 57 |
| 6 | Terranuova Traiana | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 28:30 | 51 |
| 7 | Foligno | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 45:37 | 51 |
| 8 | Scandicci | 34 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 39:32 | 48 |
| 9 | Montevarchi | 34 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 28:32 | 46 |
| 10 | Sporting Trestina | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 40:42 | 42 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 30:35 | 40 |
| 12 | Ghiviborgo | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42:44 | 40 |
| 13 | Orvietana | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 33:37 | 38 |
| 14 | Follonica Gavorrano | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36:49 | 37 |
| 15 | Camaiore Calcio | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 41:54 | 35 |
| 16 | Poggibonsi | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 29:46 | 31 |
| 17 | Cannara | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 24:59 | 26 |
| 18 | Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro | 34 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 20:46 | 22 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)
