Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Foligno vs Sporting Trestina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Manfredi L.
23' Event
Pupo Posada Y.
45' Event
Tolomello F.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Foligno in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Foligno.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Foligno
22%
Draws
18%
Sporting Trestina
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Foligno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Foligno lately — more wins on the board than Sporting Trestina.
  • Model gives Foligno a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Foligno Clean Sheet 68%
Sporting Trestina Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Foligno Sporting Trestina
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 8 11
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 0.75 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Foligno vs Sporting Trestina
3:1
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Sporting Trestina vs Foligno
0:1
May 8, 2022 Serie D - Group E
Sporting Trestina vs Foligno
2:0
Dec 22, 2021 Serie D - Group E
Foligno vs Sporting Trestina
1:3
Nov 3, 2021 Coppa Italia Serie D
Sporting Trestina vs Foligno
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Foligno Compare

Top Goalscorer Pupo Posada Y.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Manfredi L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Sporting Trestina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Foligno 68 / 100
Sporting Trestina 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Foligno Sporting Trestina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FOL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sporting Trestina has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Attacking prowess: Foligno scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Foligno remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Foligno VS Sporting Trestina
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Foligno

(Home)
03 May
Foligno
1 : 0
Cannara
26 Apr
Seravezza Pozzi
0 : 0
Foligno
19 Apr
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 0
Foligno
12 Apr
Foligno
0 : 2
Prato
02 Apr
Ghiviborgo
0 : 0
Foligno
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Sporting Trestina

(Away)
29 Jul
Gubbio
2 : 0
Sporting Trestina
03 May
Siena
4 : 4
Sporting Trestina
26 Apr
Sporting Trestina
0 : 2
Prato
19 Apr
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
1 : 1
Sporting Trestina
12 Apr
Sporting Trestina
1 : 1
Follonica Gavorrano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Grosseto34226658:2572
2Tau34189753:3363
3Prato34205949:2963
4Siena34179857:3560
5Seravezza Pozzi341512742:2957
6Terranuova Traiana341491128:3051
7Foligno341491145:3751
8Scandicci341115839:3248
9Montevarchi341016828:3246
10Sporting Trestina3410121240:4242
11San Donato Tavarnelle349131230:3540
12Ghiviborgo3410101442:4440
13Orvietana349111433:3738
14Follonica Gavorrano349101536:4937
15Camaiore Calcio34981741:5435
16Poggibonsi347101729:4631
17Cannara34682024:5926
18Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro342161620:4622
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)