Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Follonica Gavorrano vs Camaiore Calcio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Pescicani L.
7' Event
Masoni T.
10' Event
Magazzu L.

AI Match Summary

Follonica Gavorrano in this Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Follonica Gavorrano
30%
Draws
9%
Camaiore Calcio
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Follonica Gavorrano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Follonica Gavorrano have won more games recently than Camaiore Calcio.
  • 61% — that's where the model lands on Follonica Gavorrano taking it.
  • Follonica Gavorrano have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Follonica Gavorrano, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Follonica Gavorrano have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Follonica Gavorrano Clean Sheet 68%
Camaiore Calcio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Follonica Gavorrano Camaiore Calcio
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 8
Draws 9 6
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.34 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs Camaiore Calcio
3:2
Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs Camaiore Calcio
1:0
Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Camaiore Calcio vs Follonica Gavorrano
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Follonica Gavorrano Compare

Top Goalscorer Pescicani L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Masoni T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Camaiore Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Magazzu L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ficini F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Follonica Gavorrano 95 / 100
Camaiore Calcio 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Follonica Gavorrano Camaiore Calcio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Follonica Gavorrano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.67 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Follonica Gavorrano remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Follonica Gavorrano scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Camaiore Calcio conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Follonica Gavorrano VS Camaiore Calcio
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Follonica Gavorrano

(Home)
27 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 1
Sasso Marconi
20 Sept
San Donato Tavarnelle
0 : 2
Follonica Gavorrano
16 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
1 : 0
Ghiviborgo
12 Sept
Ternana
1 : 1
Follonica Gavorrano
06 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 0
Grassina
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Camaiore Calcio

(Away)
10 May
Follonica Gavorrano
3 : 2
Camaiore Calcio
03 May
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
0 : 0
Camaiore Calcio
26 Apr
Camaiore Calcio
2 : 5
Siena
19 Apr
Terranuova Traiana
2 : 1
Camaiore Calcio
12 Apr
Camaiore Calcio
1 : 1
Poggibonsi
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Orvietana 1
Poggibonsi 0
Follonica Gavorrano 3
Camaiore Calcio 2